Alternative world energy

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ARTICLE IN PRESS
I N T E R N AT I O N A L J O U R N A L O F H Y D R O G E N E N E R G Y

33 (2008) 3021 – 3025

Available at www.sciencedirect.com

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/he

Alternative World Energy Outlook (AWEO) and the role of hydrogen in a changing energy landscape
Martin ZertaÃ, Patrick R. Schmidt, Christoph Stiller, Hubert Landinger
Ludwig-Bolkow-SystemtechnikGmbH (LBST), Daimlerstrasse 15, D-85521 Ottobrunn, Germany ¨

art i cle info
Article history: Received 18 September 2007 Received in revised form 28 January 2008 Accepted 28 January 2008 Available online 21 March 2008 Keywords: IEA WEO AWEO World energy scenario Hydrogen Fossil resources Renewable energies Energy potentials Peak oil

ab st rac t
The global energy situation is about tochange at an accelerating pace and society is largely unprepared. Common energy analyses, such as the International Energy Agency’s ‘‘World Energy Outlook’’, do not take into account foreseeable supply mismatches from conventional primary energy sources. It is thus the purpose of this paper to provide a progressive view based on an accelerated transition to renewable energies in the framework of LBST’s‘‘Alternative World Energy Outlook’’. A transition to renewable energies appears feasible; however, with an intermediate period with limited supplies between 2015 and 2025. Furthermore, the potential role of hydrogen as a secondary energy carrier is reflected in this context. Hydrogen used for transportation can increase the penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources through offering theability to convert electricity to fuel. & 2008 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1.

Introduction

The current energy landscape is confronted with several strains of developments: supply constraints of conventional primary energy sources at increasing energy demands from emerging economies, climate change, deregulation of energymarkets, and new opportunities from innovations in sustainable energy technologies. Whilst these determinants are gaining momentum, conventional energy analyses are somewhat staying behind. Moreover, the role of hydrogen could become crucial, e.g. by greening the transportation sector or decoupling the end use from the primary energy source. In this paper, findings from supply analyses of finiteprimary energy sources are discussed firstly. Secondly, renewable energy potentials are presented. Then, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) World Energy Outlook (WEO) and
ÃCorresponding author. Tel.: +49 89 608 110 25.

Ludwig-Bolkow-Systemtechnik’s Alternative WEO (AWEO) ¨ analyses are introduced. Eventually, the rationale for hydrogen and its various uses within the AWEO framework areelaborated.

2.

Fossil and nuclear energy supply

Today, about 80% of the total primary energy is provided by fossil energy sources [1]. The analysis of oil, natural gas and coal statistics and historical developments, such as the experiences made with the peaking of oil and natural gas production in the USA or in the North Sea raise the question about the perspective and security of our futureenergy supply from fossil energies.

E-mail address: Zerta@LBST.de (M. Zerta). 0360-3199/$ - see front matter & 2008 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.ijhydene.2008.01.044

ARTICLE IN PRESS
3022
I N T E R N AT I O N A L J O U R N A L O F H Y D R O G E N E N E R G Y

33 (2008) 3021 – 3025

Nomenclature AWEO GJ haIEA LBST Mtoe Alternative World Energy Outlook Giga Joule hectare International Energy Agency Ludwig-Bolkow-Systemtechnik ¨ megaton oil-equivalent

PV RES SOT TPES TWh WEO yr

photovoltaics renewable energy sources solar thermal power total primary energy supply terawatt hours World Energy Outlook year

2.1.

Fossil energy

 Oil. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA)...
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