Análisis Mercado Transporte Aéreo Septiembre 2011

AIR TRANSPORT MARKET ANALYSIS
SEPTEMBER 2011
KEY POINTS
 Air travel and air freight markets diverged sharply in September, with air freight pulled lower by deteriorating economic conditions, but air travel rose strongly.  Worldwide RPKs flown in September were 5.6% higher than a year ago, compared with 4.6% in August. We were expecting the start of the weaker trend in travel, after the fallin August, but the rebound in September took RPKs back to trend growth.  Air freight tells a different story. In September worldwide FTKs flown were 2.7% lower than last year. Air freight volumes had stopped growing for the 12 months to the second quarter. In the third quarter there was a significant decline in air freight markets, as the chart below shows.  The rise in air travel wasbroad-based in September, across domestic and international markets. The recovery in Japan’s domestic market faltered but there were strong increases in China and India. On international markets the strongest performances were registered by airlines from Latin America and, despite the Eurozone crisis, from Europe.  The further decline in air freight was dominated by falls in Europe and Asia-Pacific,reflecting the crisis in many European economies and knock-on effects of weakness in Western economies for manufacturers in Asia. Domestic air freight was unchanged. The decline in international air freight reflects a broader deterioration in international trade.
Total Air Freight and Passenger Volumes
Seasonally Adjusted

Worldwide growth in air travel and business confidence
17

65 60 Growth inRPKs (right scale)

15%

435 16

10%

Index of business confidence

Monthly RPK (Billions)

Monthly FTK (Billions)

15 393

5% 50 45

14
372

Business confidence (left scale)

0%

13

-5%

RPK
351

40
35 30 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -10%

FTK

12

330

11

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

-15%

 The outlook for the next few monthsstill looks weak. Air travel has yet to show any such weakness. However, our analysis still suggests the fall in air freight and the declines in business and consumer confidence are precursors to a significant slowdown in the growth of air travel.
Year on Year Comparison International Domestic Total Market

September 2011 vs. September 2010
RPK ASK PLF FTK AFTK FLF RPK

YTD 2011 vs. YTD 2010ASK PLF FTK AFTK FLF

6.6% 3.8% 5.6%

7.5% 2.8% 5.8%

79.5% 78.8% 79.2%

-3.0% -0.7% -2.7%

2.5% 2.0% 2.4%

49.3% 29.8% 45.1%

7.5% 4.4% 6.3%

8.7% 3.1% 6.6%

77.9% 79.3% 78.4%

0.4% -1.9% 0.1%

6.1% 0.4% 4.8%

50.6% 28.0% 45.7%

RPK: Revenue-Passenger-Kilometers; ASK: Available-Seat-Kilometers; PLF: Passenger-Load-Factor; FTK: Freight-Tonne-Kilometers; AFTK: AvailableFreight Tonne Kilometers; FLF: Freight Load Factor; All Figures are expressed in % change Year on Year except PLF and FLF which are the load factors for the specific month.

IATA Economics www.iata.org/economics

% change over year

414

55

1

Air Transport Market Analysis September 2011

COMPARING SEPTEMBER TO AUGUST
 September 2011 vs. August 2011
Month on Month Comparison
RPKASK PLF pt FTK AFTK FLF pt

International Domestic Total Market

2.1% 2.6% 2.7%

1.1% 1.0% 1.0%

0.7% 1.3% 1.3%

-1.0% 0.1% -1.5%

0.0% 1.1% 0.3%

-0.5% -0.3% -0.8%

The seasonally-adjusted data show a very strong rebound in RPKs during September, after the falls seen in August. Capacity was up but at less than half the pace of demand recovery, allowing a significant rise in loadfactors. Domestic freight was flat in September but the bulk of air freight takes place on international market and that was down significantly. Freight load factors fell.



Data are seasonally adjusted. All figures are expressed in % change month on month except, PLF pt and FLF pt which are the percentage point difference between load factors of two consecutive months.

PASSENGER MARKET...