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  • Publicado : 7 de septiembre de 2012
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Can China Feed Itself?

Introduction

China is a big country with a big population however there is a question that is hard to answer that is “Can China feed itself?” There are seven dimensions that play a major role in China's food prediction:

(1) Population growth

(2) Diet change

(3) Urbanization

(4) Size and quality of arable land

(5) Supply of water

(6) Policies andeconomic arrangements

(7) Scientific and technological developments

There will be an analysis of these trends which will be almost arguments with different types of data collection. They will all show if China is capable to feed the entire population.

Population:

Trends:

People’s Republic of China was founded in 1949; it had a population of 540 million. Three decades later itspopulation was more than 800 million. This exceptional population increase has created a strong population momentum that is now motivating China’s population growth even though already low levels of fertility. In the next three decades China's population will increase by another 260 million as a result the population is still increasing without knowing if the food will be enough.

Impact:

Populationgrowth is a major demand for food. However it is not possible to estimate China's future food demand. To do this possible we have take many things into account like the change in dietary preferences for example increase in meat consumption. Ageing population might also have an effect on China’s food demand. Growing population density in Eastern China also affects the country's food productioncapacity, because the more people living there then the more land needed for housing and therefore less space for crop planting.

Data Quality:

The situation has changed drastically since the late 1970s. Today statistics are available in China. The 1982 and 1990 censuses in particular have significantly improved the situation. To measure immediate changes in demographic trends between censusyears and to obtain more detailed information, China has conducted several sample surveys. Recent fertility surveys have shown extremely low levels of fertility. There is also a prediction that the population of China is expected to grow 260 million by 2025 therefore this means that there will be a higher demand on food.

Prediction Error:

A high error range in total population projections forChina is unavoidable. Due to the enormous population size the projected number of people greatly depends on insignificant variations in fertility and mortality rates.

Intervention Possibilities:

No intervention by the state can prevent China's population from increasing by another 260-300 million people, because population momentum is driving much of this growth.

Intervention Costs:

AnIntervention cost would be the family planning but it is very low compared to its multiple economic and social advantages. Like if there is a slower rate of population growth certainly makes it easier for China's agriculture to adapt to the growing food demand because they will know how much food they need. However there are also serious costs mainly the rapid increase in ageing population which isa consequence of the steep fertility decrease during the past 20 years.



Change in Diet:

Trends:

The food preferences in China are not stable because they change as time passes. People now-a-days eat more meat and have a more various diet because they eat many other type of food like vegetables, fruit, alcohol, sugar, eggs, and dairy products which have increased rapidly, while theconsumption of pulses, roots, and tubers has declined.

Impact:

China's change in diet has already affected agriculture in two ways. First, land previously used to grow grain and especially land for cultivation of common crops is being used for vegetable and tobacco cultivation, orchards, or fish ponds. Second, the increase in meat consumption has required a massive expansion of feed grain...
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