Economic Causes Behind Arab Spring

The Economic Factors behind the Arab Spring

The image of young Mohamed Bouazizi, a jobless graduate selling vegetables, setting fire on his own body was the spark that started what Political Scientists are calling as the fourth historical wave of democratization. Mr. Bouazizi decided to kill himself not because of cultural issues or political pressures. He set fire on himself to protestagainst the lack of public policy involving job creation for young people, and against the harassment of police officials. Bouazizi was the head of his household, and supported his mother, uncle, his brother, and his sister’s college education. His self-immolation came as an eruption of rage against growing inequalities in Tunisia, a country known for its growing macroeconomic stability over thelast couple of years.
The Arab Spring of 2011 was marked by great level of violence to which the protesters were willing to confront in order to overthought everlasting dictatorships. In Tunisia alone, over 300 protesters died between January and May. In economic terms, the utility of achieving democracy needed to be greater for these people than the possible cost of death itself. When the humanbeing is confronted with the question of death as a possible cost of an action, I believe there is little rational explanation to this agenda. A culturalist approach might suggest that there is something inherent in the Arab Culture that makes the protesters braver and more willing to fight for their demands. I would rather like to suggest the notion that there were certain structural factors inthe economies of these countries that caused the revolts, such as increasing unemployment rates for young civilians and increasing inequality rates, which will determine the outcome of the process of democratization in these countries. This essay intends to do a comparative analysis behind the causes of the rebellions in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya. The focus of this essay will be an analysis ofthe structural macroeconomic factors that determined the presence of violence in these countries over the last year. Other factors, such as cultural and sociological factors will be left aside, as such analysis would require a much longer evaluation. In general terms, it is difficult to see how economic turmoil might have been the cause of such violent breakdowns in Egypt, Tunisia and Lybia.The three mentioned countries have had stable macroeconomic indicators for the last ten years, despite the global crisis of 2008. Egypt, for example, finished 2010 with an annual GDP growth rate of 5.1% (0.5% higher than the previous year). Tunisia experienced a similar situation, ending 2010 with an annual GDP growth rate of 3.7% (0.6% higher than the previous year). Libya, the country thatended up having the most violent revolution of all, topped 2010 with a growth rate of 4.2% (after a devastating year of -2.3% growth rate in 2009). So then the question is then, why did the Arab Spring erupt in such a stable (if not positive) year in macroeconomic terms for Arab nations? Why it did not erupt in 2008, where the GDP growth was certainly slower than 2010?
According to the former IMFpresident, Dominique Strauss-Khan the answer to this question relies in more specific economic indicators of 2010. In an interview to CNBC, Strauss-Khan on February 1st 2011, 50 days after the start of the revolution in Tunisia and a month later to that in Egypt, he asserted that the problem relied on the growing unemployment rates for young people in both countries.

"I remember that thissummer I made a speech in Morocco about the question of youth employment including Egypt, Tunisia, saying it is a kind of time bomb and that one of the main concerns the government may have around the region was to try to fix this problem because it couldn't last very long,"
Dominique Strauss-Khan

The study of more specific economic indicators in these three countries does seem to validate...