Contemporary World Problems
January 24, 2011
Article 7 – The Century Ahead
I) 20th century:
a) Population growth 1900-2000, form 1.5billion people to 6 billion
b) 2050: 9 or 10 billion people?
c) Population at older ages will increase this next century
II) Past population growth rates:
d) Rate of populationgrowth as almost zero
e) 1960’s – 70’s: 2% a yr
f) James Ussher estimates 1650, October 23, 4004b.c
g) Ansley Coale “2% a yr, 5000 yrs, humans exceeding the solar system”III) Aging population:
h) Low growth rate (low fertility) and long lives. (needed)
i) ^^ used to be rare, now becoming more common.
IV) Demographic transition:
j)Interconnected changes made in a modernizing society.
k) Public health and modern medicine improve – life expectancy rises, fertility falls.
l) The rise in life expectancy causes the population togrow rapidly before the lowering ferity rate creates a balance between the two.
m) Fertility level needed for long-run integration (2.1 children per women.)
V) Trends in mortality
n)Enormous reduction in mortality (life expectancy at or above 80)
o) About every decade, life expectancy goes up 2.5 years.
p) What is the biological limit to life expectancy?
q)Before WWII all health efforts were make towards infections and viruses. (children)
r) Health efforts now made for the elderly
s) Russia – life expectancy for men 60 yrs.
t)HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis may cause declined improvements
u) Latin America - income a centaury behind US/ life expectancy, behind 30-35yrs
v) US GDP exceeded $4,000 per head in1900
VII) Fertility Rate
w) Iran: went from over 6 children to 2 per women
x) Southern/central/Eastern Europe 1.3 children
y) Low fertility rate causes “aging”