Informe sobre la seguridad privada
Páginas: 2 (309 palabras)
Publicado: 10 de abril de 2011
Improving outlook into H2, cheap valuation
G4S delivered broadly in line H1 10 results
Sales rose 4.4% y/y (2% organic, same as Q1) to £3.63bn (UBSe £3.62, cons £3.60),EBITA up 3.5% to £238m (UBSe £239, cons £240) and EPS 4% to 9.3p (UBSe 9.5p).
Contract win momentum, emerging markets and easier comps bode well
We continue to expectimproving organic sales growth in H2 (to c3-4%). US is still waiting on NASA deal but has secured contracts elsewhere, which should drive acceleration in H2. UK wins with HRMC, FCO andin commercial underpin robust growth in H2, notwithstanding UK govt outsourcing uncertainty. Emerging market guarding should see further acceleration given strong fundamentals inLatAm, MidEast and Asia. Continental Europe guarding faces easier y/y comps in H2.
Some margin headwinds, and H1 cash flow was a little weak
Despite better growth in H2, wedon’t anticipate much benefit to margin, which we still expect to be flat y/y for FY10. Cash handling, in particular, faces headwinds in H2 (still low interest rates, salesreductions on Lloyds/HBOS deal in UK, ABSA contract loss) and won’t contribute positively to the mix. H1 FCF fell -8% y/y to £43m. H2 normally accounts for >75% of FY FCF, but thiswas still a relatively poor H1, according to the CFO, slightly held back by working capital timing issues.
Valuation: 11 PE 10.9x is cheap vs structural themes and growthrcovery
We continue to believe G4S deserves a higher rating given emerging market exposure and, while govt outsourcing exposure is not currently in vogue, we would also favour thatmedium term. Our 2011 EPS estimate largely unchanged, though we cut our 2010 estimate by 2% (now closer to cons) given slight H2 margin headwinds. Our PT is DCF-derived.
G4S delivered broadly in line H1 10 results
Sales rose 4.4% y/y (2% organic, same as Q1) to £3.63bn (UBSe £3.62, cons £3.60),EBITA up 3.5% to £238m (UBSe £239, cons £240) and EPS 4% to 9.3p (UBSe 9.5p).
Contract win momentum, emerging markets and easier comps bode well
We continue to expectimproving organic sales growth in H2 (to c3-4%). US is still waiting on NASA deal but has secured contracts elsewhere, which should drive acceleration in H2. UK wins with HRMC, FCO andin commercial underpin robust growth in H2, notwithstanding UK govt outsourcing uncertainty. Emerging market guarding should see further acceleration given strong fundamentals inLatAm, MidEast and Asia. Continental Europe guarding faces easier y/y comps in H2.
Some margin headwinds, and H1 cash flow was a little weak
Despite better growth in H2, wedon’t anticipate much benefit to margin, which we still expect to be flat y/y for FY10. Cash handling, in particular, faces headwinds in H2 (still low interest rates, salesreductions on Lloyds/HBOS deal in UK, ABSA contract loss) and won’t contribute positively to the mix. H1 FCF fell -8% y/y to £43m. H2 normally accounts for >75% of FY FCF, but thiswas still a relatively poor H1, according to the CFO, slightly held back by working capital timing issues.
Valuation: 11 PE 10.9x is cheap vs structural themes and growthrcovery
We continue to believe G4S deserves a higher rating given emerging market exposure and, while govt outsourcing exposure is not currently in vogue, we would also favour thatmedium term. Our 2011 EPS estimate largely unchanged, though we cut our 2010 estimate by 2% (now closer to cons) given slight H2 margin headwinds. Our PT is DCF-derived.
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