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W. Fellin · H. Lessmann · M. Oberguggenberger · R. Vieider (Eds.) Analyzing Uncertainty in Civil Engineering

Wolfgang Fellin · Heimo Lessmann Michael Oberguggenberger · Robert Vieider (Eds.)

Analyzing Uncertainty in Civil Engineering
With 157 Figures and 23 Tables

Editors
a.o. Univ.-Prof. Dipl.-Ing. Dr. Wolfgang Fellin Institut f¨ r Geotechnik und Tunnelbau u Universit¨ t Innsbrucka Technikerstr. 13 6020 Innsbruck Austria em. Univ.-Prof. Dipl.-Ing. Heimo Lessmann Starkenb¨ hel 304 u 6073 Sistrans Austria a.o. Univ.-Prof. Dr. Michael Oberguggenberger Institut f¨ r Technische Mathematik, u Geometrie und Bauinformatik Universit¨ t Innsbruck a Technikerstr. 13 6020 Innsbruck Austria Dipl.-Ing. Robert Vieider Vieider Ingenieur GmbH Rebschulweg 1/E 39052 Kaltern an der WeinstraßeItaly

ISBN 3-540-22246-4 Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York
Library of Congress Control Number: 2004112073 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in other ways, and storage in data banks.Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer-Verlag. Violations are liable to prosecution under German Copyright Law. Springer is a part of Springer Science+Business Media springeronline.com

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Preface

This volume addresses the issue of uncertainty in civil engineering from design to construction. Failures do occur in practice. Attributing them to a residual risk or a faulty execution of the project does not properly cover the range of causes. A closer scrutiny of the design, theengineering model, the data, the soil-structure-interaction and the model assumptions is required. Usually, the uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions as well as material parameters are abundant. Current engineering practice often leaves these issues aside, despite the fact that new scientific tools have been developed in the past decades that allow a rational description of uncertainties ofall kinds, from model uncertainty to data uncertainty. It is the aim of this volume to have a critical look at current engineering risk concepts in order to raise awareness of uncertainty in numerical computations, shortcomings of a strictly probabilistic safety concept, geotechnical models of failure mechanisms and their implications for construction management, execution, and the juristicquestion as to who has to take responsibility. In addition, a number of the new procedures for modelling uncertainty are explained. Our central claim is that doubts and uncertainties must be openly addressed in the design process. This contrasts certain tendencies in the engineering community that, though incorporating uncertainties by one or the other way in the modelling process, claim to being able tocontrol them. In our view, it is beyond question that a mathematical/numerical formalization is needed to provide a proper understanding of the effects of the inherent uncertainties of a project. Available information from experience, in situ measurements, laboratory tests, previous projects and expert assessments should be taken into account. Combining this with the engineering model(s) - and a...
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