Ingeniero

Smart Information for a Sustainable World

Solar Forecasting
Telvent

Smart Information for a Sustainable World

Leading Provider of Business Weather Solutions
Energy Aviation Transportation Agriculture

Forecasting and alerting services for electric/gas utilities Another bl • Forecasting for electric/gas utilities load modeling • Transmission and Distribution services • Solar and WindForecasting • Wind Plant O&M weather • Forecasting for commercial, corporate, and specialized flight operations • Helicopter Decision Support Systems • Airport ramp and runway operations • Pavement Forecasting and alerting services for state and local government • Weather for Intelligent Transportation Systems (e.g. 511) • Precision precipitation and wind forecasts • Historical weather data forcrop and yield monitoring • Local weather sensor networks

Smart Information for a Sustainable World

Telvent Environment: One Company, Evolving Over 30 Years

Smart Information for a Sustainable World

Telvent – Dominant Weather Provider to the Energy Industry in North America
Largest energy weather provider in US Telvent is a DMS/OMS leader Part of Schneider Electric, a $30 billionglobal energy leader
70% of generation in U.S. electric industry uses Telvent weather forecasts for load modeling

#1 for transmission and distribution crew management. Weather integrated into OMS & DMS SmartGrid systems

Renewable energy services: 73% of US wind farms use Telvent lightning safety alerting. Wind power and solar forecasting.

Smart Information for a Sustainable World

OurSolar Forecasting Experience
Providing solar irradiance forecasts to dozens of utilities for load forecasting

Utility-scale solar irradiance forecasting, including Abengoa Solar

Involved in distributed solar projects

Smart Information for a Sustainable World

Schneider and Telvent have broad solar capabilities
Schneider provides a leading inverter solution, and is a solar integratorTelvent has SCADA systems for solar plants, used by Abengoa Solar and others Telvent DMS (Distribution Management System) manages distributed solar generation challenges

Smart Information for a Sustainable World

Solar Forecasting Challenges & Needs
Utility scale
Different types of utility-scale technologies: PV & Thermal Clouds – difficult to predict Needs
Generation planning Next-day unitcommitments Short-term thermal operation (gas units) Utilize as much solar power as possible at minimum financial and system risk

Distributed renewables (rooftops)
Shifting clouds cause rapid power fluctuations on local systems not designed for that Needs:
Distribution system stability Forecast contribution of power

Smart Information for a Sustainable World

Solar ForecastingRequirements
Needs: Solutions:
Specialized Radiative Transfer Modeling, more than just weather models Satellite processing of current clouds, with prediction Irradiance only or power too: GHI, DNI, generated power, factoring in plane of array & tracking

Forecast accuracy Factor in clouds

Account for differing needs

Smart Information for a Sustainable World

New Solar Irradiance ForecastTechnology
State-of-the-science approach, deployed for operational use
Precise cloud analysis and forecast High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models Radiative transfer modeling
Sample Day 1 Solar Irradiance Forecast Output 5-min avg GHI observation 1-hr avg GHI observation 1-hr avg GHI forecast

Through partnership with AER, world leaders in radiative transfer modeling technologyIrradiance (Wm-2)

Time

Smart Information for a Sustainable World

Solar Irradiance Forecast Technology Cascade
Wm-2

Same Day

Next Day

Day 3

Day 4

Day 5

Day 6

Day 7

Cloud Forecast

High-Res NWP

Mediumterm NWP

Long-range NWP (weather model)

Both cloud forecasts and model data are inputs to the radiative transfer modeling, which adds further accuracy...