Inversion extranjera

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Sovereigns
International Credit Update
Ratings
Foreign Currency
Long-Term IDR* ............................................... BBB+ Short-Term IDR*.................................................... F2 Outlook ............................................................ Stable

United Mexican States
Summary Fitch Ratings recently upgraded Mexico’s sovereign ratings on the back of asubstantive fiscal reform that increases the government’s non-oil tax intake. Additional factors underpinning the upgrade include Mexico’s strengthening policy framework, its continued resilience in the current unfavorable external environment, as well as its prudent public debt liability management that has strengthened the depth of the local capital markets. The approved tax reform is expected toincrease the tax collection by 2% of GDP during President Calderon’s term. The tax regime has been substantially improved by the elimination of most “special regimes” that previously plagued the Mexican tax system. The flat minimum corporate tax – the so-called “CETU” – is the cornerstone of the tax reform and is likely to raise over 1.2% of GDP in additional revenue, with the remainder emanating fromtax administration efforts. The reform has also granted greater tax relief to Pemex, which should boost the company’s much-needed investment spending. It also comprises measures that could increase the transparency and effectiveness of public spending. Overall, Fitch expects the fiscal reform to increase the government’s flexibility to deal with an oil price shock and other spending pressures,allowing the authorities to boost infrastructure spending, which could have a positive spillover for growth. Mexico is exposed to the US slowdown due to the increased trade and financial links between the two countries. A slowdown in the US combined with lower oil prices and a sharp deceleration in overseas workers’ remittances growth could increase the country’s current account deficit, althoughFitch believes most of it could be financed through FDI flows. Moreover, Mexico’s robust policy framework, flexible exchange rate, modest external financing needs and favourable external liquidity position should enable the country to weather tough external conditions. Credit Outlook The Rating Outlook is Stable. Creditworthiness could strengthen if Mexico’s economic performance improved on asustained basis, leading to a convergence of its per capita income with that of higher-rated sovereigns. Similarly, improved fiscal performance, leading to a significant reduction in public indebtedness, would be viewed positively. On the other hand, persistent fiscal slippage leading to an increase in the public debt burden would be viewed negatively. • • • • • • • Strengths Macroeconomic stability anda robust policy framework Modest external debt burden Low current account deficits, amply covered by FDI flows Strengthening democratic institutions Weaknesses A low non-oil tax burden Less dynamic growth than peers Weak social indicators

Local Currency
Long-Term IDR* ..................................................... ARating Outlook................................................. StableCountry Ceiling ........................................................ A
* IDR – Issuer Default Rating

Peer Group A-

Israel Malaysia Poland Mexico Hungary Latvia Russian Federation South Africa Thailand Aruba Bulgaria Kazakhstan Romania Tunisia

BBB+

BBB

Ratings History
Date 19 Sep 2007 07 Dec 2005 15 Jan 2002 03 May 2000 15 Sep 1997 LTFC BBB+ BBB BBBBB+ BB LTLC ABBB+ BBB BBB BB-Analysts Shelly Shetty Phone + 1 212 908 0324 shelly.shetty@fitchratings.com Theresa Paiz Fredel Phone + 1 212 908 0534 theresa.paiz@fitchratings.com

21 September 2007
www.fitchratings.com

Sovereigns
Key Indicators for Mexico
Population (2006): 108.9m Population Growth Rate (2001-2006): 1.4% p.a. GDP (2006): USD840.0bn GDP per Head at Market Exchange Rates (2006): USD7,714 GNI Per...
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