Las aerolineas en iata
Páginas: 6 (1331 palabras)
Publicado: 19 de marzo de 2010
Airline industry outlook remains fragile
June 2009
www.iata.org/economics
To represent, lead and serve the airline industry
Airline industry outlook remains fragile
Green shoots starting to appear Recovery faces strong headwinds Financial sustainability varies across industry Airlines are taking many steps to raise cash Revenue collapse likely to sustain losses
Hit by a synchronizedvery deep recession
Manufacturing production levels Index to equal 100 in January 2009 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 S. Korea -24% Germany -23% Japan -36% US -16%
83
87
91
85
95
89
99
93
03
97
20
20
19
19
19
19
Source: Haver
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
07
01
05
09
Business confidence has now turned upBusiness confidence survey results 65 60 US companies 55 50 45 40 35 30 1997
Source: Haver
10 5 0 -5 -10 EU27 companies (right scale) -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 EU27 companies
US companies (left scale)
Key airline markets may have bottomed
10% 5% % change over year 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% Air freight international FTKs International premium passenger numbersSource: IATA
Ju l-0 O 5 ct -0 Ja 5 n0 Ap 6 r -0 Ju 6 l-0 O 6 ct -0 Ja 6 n07 Ap r -0 Ju 7 l-0 O 7 ct -0 Ja 7 n08 Ap r -0 Ju 8 l-0 O 8 ct -0 Ja 8 n09
PMI Value (50 = No-Change) 34 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 0 4 8 -8 -4 -24 -20 -16 -12 InternationalFTKs JP Morgan Output PMI (+ 2 months) 38 42 46 50 54 58
Source: IATA
Green shoots appearing
Purchasing Managers confidence survey and Air Freight Demand
% Growth, International FTKs
Airline industry outlook remains fragile
Green shoots starting to appear Recovery faces strong headwinds Financial sustainability varies across industry Airlines are taking many steps to raise cashRevenue collapse likely to sustain losses
Fuel prices now edging higher
Jet Fuel and Crude Oil Price ($/barrel) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Crude oil price End-May futures curve Jet fuel price
Source: Platts, Bloomberg
Ap 6 r0 6 Ju l0 6 O ct 06 Ja n0 Ap 7 r0 7 Ju l0 7 O ct 07 Ja n0 8 Ap r0 8 Ju l0 8 O ct 08 Ja n0 Ap 9 r0 9 Ju l0 9 O ct 09
Ja
n0
Manufacturers need to cutinventories
Air freight volumes and manufacturers inventory-sales ratio 18 1.6 inventory-sales ratio... 16 International FTKs 14 12 10 8 6 International FTKs (left scale) inventory-sales ratio (right scale) 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 0.8
98
99
97
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
20
20
20
19
Source: IATA, Haver
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
2020
10
07
08
09
Households need to reduce debt
Household indebtedness and house prices in the US 250 Average house price $000 200 150 100 50 0 Debt as % income (right scale) Average house price (left scale) 140% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Household debt as % income 130%
88
84
68
76
60
96
19
19
19
20
19
19
19
Source: Haver
1919
19
19
20
20
04
80
72
08
92
64
00
Airline industry outlook remains fragile
Green shoots starting to appear Recovery faces strong headwinds Financial sustainability varies across industry Airlines are taking many steps to raise cash Revenue collapse likely to sustain losses
Airline losses still growing in 2009 Q1
Q1 2008 Q1 2009* Operating Netpost-tax Operating Net post-tax 21 North America 1,433 (377) 1,184 (592) 10 European airlines 123 (943) (1,998) (1,892) 11 Asia-Pacific airlines 529 (176) (998) (850) 8 Other 123 91 118 65 Sample total 50 2,209 (1,405) (1,694) (3,270) *Jazeera Airways, Royal Jordanian operating profit not included Emirates, half year results included # Airlines In US $ Million
Source: IATA
Cash higher than...
June 2009
www.iata.org/economics
To represent, lead and serve the airline industry
Airline industry outlook remains fragile
Green shoots starting to appear Recovery faces strong headwinds Financial sustainability varies across industry Airlines are taking many steps to raise cash Revenue collapse likely to sustain losses
Hit by a synchronizedvery deep recession
Manufacturing production levels Index to equal 100 in January 2009 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 S. Korea -24% Germany -23% Japan -36% US -16%
83
87
91
85
95
89
99
93
03
97
20
20
19
19
19
19
Source: Haver
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
07
01
05
09
Business confidence has now turned upBusiness confidence survey results 65 60 US companies 55 50 45 40 35 30 1997
Source: Haver
10 5 0 -5 -10 EU27 companies (right scale) -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 EU27 companies
US companies (left scale)
Key airline markets may have bottomed
10% 5% % change over year 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% Air freight international FTKs International premium passenger numbersSource: IATA
Ju l-0 O 5 ct -0 Ja 5 n0 Ap 6 r -0 Ju 6 l-0 O 6 ct -0 Ja 6 n07 Ap r -0 Ju 7 l-0 O 7 ct -0 Ja 7 n08 Ap r -0 Ju 8 l-0 O 8 ct -0 Ja 8 n09
PMI Value (50 = No-Change) 34 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 0 4 8 -8 -4 -24 -20 -16 -12 InternationalFTKs JP Morgan Output PMI (+ 2 months) 38 42 46 50 54 58
Source: IATA
Green shoots appearing
Purchasing Managers confidence survey and Air Freight Demand
% Growth, International FTKs
Airline industry outlook remains fragile
Green shoots starting to appear Recovery faces strong headwinds Financial sustainability varies across industry Airlines are taking many steps to raise cashRevenue collapse likely to sustain losses
Fuel prices now edging higher
Jet Fuel and Crude Oil Price ($/barrel) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Crude oil price End-May futures curve Jet fuel price
Source: Platts, Bloomberg
Ap 6 r0 6 Ju l0 6 O ct 06 Ja n0 Ap 7 r0 7 Ju l0 7 O ct 07 Ja n0 8 Ap r0 8 Ju l0 8 O ct 08 Ja n0 Ap 9 r0 9 Ju l0 9 O ct 09
Ja
n0
Manufacturers need to cutinventories
Air freight volumes and manufacturers inventory-sales ratio 18 1.6 inventory-sales ratio... 16 International FTKs 14 12 10 8 6 International FTKs (left scale) inventory-sales ratio (right scale) 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 0.8
98
99
97
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
20
20
20
19
Source: IATA, Haver
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
2020
10
07
08
09
Households need to reduce debt
Household indebtedness and house prices in the US 250 Average house price $000 200 150 100 50 0 Debt as % income (right scale) Average house price (left scale) 140% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Household debt as % income 130%
88
84
68
76
60
96
19
19
19
20
19
19
19
Source: Haver
1919
19
19
20
20
04
80
72
08
92
64
00
Airline industry outlook remains fragile
Green shoots starting to appear Recovery faces strong headwinds Financial sustainability varies across industry Airlines are taking many steps to raise cash Revenue collapse likely to sustain losses
Airline losses still growing in 2009 Q1
Q1 2008 Q1 2009* Operating Netpost-tax Operating Net post-tax 21 North America 1,433 (377) 1,184 (592) 10 European airlines 123 (943) (1,998) (1,892) 11 Asia-Pacific airlines 529 (176) (998) (850) 8 Other 123 91 118 65 Sample total 50 2,209 (1,405) (1,694) (3,270) *Jazeera Airways, Royal Jordanian operating profit not included Emirates, half year results included # Airlines In US $ Million
Source: IATA
Cash higher than...
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