MID-YEAR 2011 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Mexican retail activity is gaining momentum, stimulated by a 3.9% annual growth in gross domestic product to the end of the first half of theyear (commerce GDP grew 7.4%); demand is picking up, as suggested by a consumer confidence index at a three year high (reaching a 6.4% growth over the last twelve months), while the national retailsales index posted a 4.8% increase to June. Also, there is a 14.7% increase in the value of sales using credit cards to the end of June. By 2011’s second quarter, the national index of retail employmenthad a 3.20% year-over-year increase, pointing to an increase from the supply side and completing the picture of Mexican retail being on the path to a new cycle. BEAT ON THE STREET
“Even under volatilefinancial markets and economy swings, the largest retailers in Mexico envision an opportunity for growth. Primary product retailers develop new store formats, taking advantage of an increasinglydiverse consumer base; separately, apartment stores and upscale retailers return to high income areas with increasingly focused store formats and product mix. Notably, Mexican retailers are also expandingto regions as far as India (Cinépolis) or South America (Famsa and Coppel)” –Ricardo Rosette, Retail Director C&W Mexico
NATIONAL 2010 2011F
5.5% 4.4% 90 9.3%112,330,000 5.2%
4.1% 4.0% 93 4.8% 113,191,000 5.6%
RETAIL MARKET OVERVI EW
While economic indicators in the first half of the year clearly make the point that emerging economy trends areunderway, they do not tell a fundamental truth present across local real estate markets: Mexico is a hybrid country, where new, world-class retail development shares the street with an estimated 2.3million mom-and-pop stores and traditional markets; all these venues serve a highly diversified and continuously growing base of consumers. National population has grown 15.2%, 15 million people in the...