Micmac & mactor

AC/UNU Millennium Project

Futures Research Methodology Futures Research Methodology

Structural analysis with the MICMAC method & Actors' strategy with MACTOR method

By : Jacques ARCADE, Sirius Michel GODET, CNAM Francis MEUNIER, CNAM Fabrice ROUBELAT, CNAM

The authors are with the Laboratory for Investigation in Prospective and Strategy (LIPS), rue Cont, 75003 Paris Tel (33.1)40.27.25.30 Fax (33.1) 40.27.27.43 E-mail : lips@cnam.fr

Structural Analysis

AC/UNU Millennium Project

Futures Research Methodology Futures Research Methodology

CONTENTS Introduction : the scenarios method and the prospective tool-box 1. Identifying the key variables : the structural analysis with the MICMAC method 1.1. Historical background of structural analysis 1.2. Presentation of themethod
1.2.1. Objective and stage 1.2.2. The inventory of variables 1.2.3. Description of relationships between variables . . . . 1.2.4. Structuring the web of interrelations 1.2.5. Visualization of variables in the influence x dependence plane 1.2.6. Interpretation of the influence x dependence chart, and typology of variables 1.2.7. Assessing the system's degree of determination

1.3. Limits ofthe method and recommendations for its implementation
1.3.1. Composition of the experts' group 1.3.2. The operation's heaviness 1.3.3. The need for a small group 1.3.4. Originality of the results

1.4. Usefulness and uses of structural analysis
1.4.1. Identification of prospective scenarios 1.4.2. Strategic watch and prospective vigilance 1.4.3. Qualification and pertinent horizon ofstrategic prospective 1.4.4. The chart of powers 1.4.5. Simulation models 1.4.6. Structuring of objectives and relevance charts

2. Understanding the actors’ strategies : the MACTOR method
2.1. Constructing the actors’ strategy table 2.2. Identifying the strategic issues and associated objectives 2.3. Positioning each actor in relation to the strategic objectives 2.4. Ranking the objectives for eachactor’s and assessing the range of possible convergences and divergences 2.5. Evaluating the balance of power and formulating strategic recommendations 2.6. Key questions for the future

New frontiers : from groupwares to chaos, the importance of the participatory process Bibliography

Structural Analysis Structural Analysis

1

AC/UNU Millennium Project

Futures Research MethodologyFutures Research Methodology

Introduction : the scenarios method and the prospective tool-box

For the last thirty years, impact matrices have become one of the most commonly used tools of the futures field. With the objective to investigate systems and their dynamics, impact matrices can be divided into three categories : structural analysis, actors’ strategies and probabilistic cross-impactmatrix. In structural analysis, these impacts deal with variables (KANE’s KSIM or GODET’s MICMAC, both in the early seventies). With actors’ strategies, they concern actors and their objectives (TENIERE-BUCHOT’s chart of powers, GODET’s MACTOR, in the late eighties). In probabilistic models, developed from the late sixties and improved in the early seventies, they combine events and hypotheses(original model by GORDON and DALKEY, Battelle’s Explor-Sim, GODET’s Smic-Prob-Expert or MARTINO’s Maxim) and sometimes trends that seem to be variables (ENZER’s Interax). Within the frame proposed by Michel GODET in his scenario method (see Figure 1), this paper will present more precisely the first two families : structural analysis and actors’ strategies. Scenarios and the prospective tool-box : theplace of structural analysis and actors strategies Mostly based on impact matrices, the prospective tool-box developed by Michel GODET and French prospective research and consulting teams since the mid-seventies, is a scenario-oriented combination of techniques. The strategic prospective process comprises three major stages : construction of the basis, identification of major issues at stake,...