# Turismo

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• Publicado : 23 de junio de 2010

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Probability of highest Bid  (when it is \$5 million )= 0.2
Given Bid last date to submit is Aug 15 ; Bid announced on Sep 1
As per Glenn Analysi
Probability zoning change will approved in thereferendum = 0.3
So Probability not approved  = 0.7
Bid Requires 10% of the amount = \$5,000,000 *0.1 = \$500,000

Total Revenue if the Bid accepted and zone changed  = \$ 15,000,000
Property  = \$ 5,000,000
Construction = \$ 8,00,000
So Profit  = \$ 15,000,000-\$13,000,000 =\$ 2,000,000
Marketing Survey Cost  = \$ 15,000

Let A is the  zone changed (as per glennanalysis )
N is zone not changed
So P(A) = 0.3  ; P(N) = 0.7
Given Probabilities as per Market Research Firm
P(As1 ) = 0.9 ; P(Ns1) = 0.1
P(As2) = 0.2 ; P( Ns2) = 0.8
Probabilityof Market Research gives the report that zone has changed = 0.3*0.9 + 0.7*0.2
= 0.41 Probability of MR that zone hasnot changed  = 0.3*0.1  + 0.7*0.8  = 0.59

If The Market research information is not available then Ocen view decision

To reach construction
Cost  = \$ 5,000,000 + \$ 8,000,000 = \$13,000,000
Profit  = \$ 2,000,000
If the Bid not accept then profit  = 0
If the Bid is accepted and zone not changed then cost  = \$50,000
Profit  = -\$50,000
Expected (Monetary Value) amount  = \$2,00,000 *0.3 + (-\$50,000*0.7)
= \$ 565,000

If the Market research is conducted and on the basis of the Marketresearch
Glenn took decision
** Assumption is Glenn go for a bid if the Market Research gives that zone is changed
The cost = \$15,000 (if the Bid is not accepted )
Then profit = -\$15,000 Cost = \$15,000+\$500,00(if the bid is accepted and Nov referendum is not favour to zone changing)
Profit  = -\$ 65,000

If the Bid is accepted and Nov referendum is favour to zone changing
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