What is a black swan?

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a BñPhilosophy Talk Notes – Predicting the Future
http://www.philosophytalk.org/pastShows/PredictingtheFuture.htm
David Hume     Sceptical eye on predicting the future.... believing that thefuture will be like the past isn’t grounded in experience nor reason. Will the sun rise tomorrow? Hitting the ball with the bat and it will take off in a certain direction and distance? Have weexperienced the future (Hume) o Reason could lead to logical similarity to the future but all the pasts are different o Induction means that we are assuming things about the future with qualifiers o Friendsthat we are wrong about, history and wars etc. Why make future plans at all?



Roving Reporter with the Millennium Clock        A clock that will last 10,000 years (but the clock in amountain in Nevada) engineered to last along time... energy provided by winding the clock. Problems in perspective Project about hope What are the choices that we make now to make 10,000 years better thanworse. Cutting down forests People will wind it to keep it going A way to communicate with people we will never meet.

Nassim Taleb – University of Massachusetts   Was a mathematician and traderand does not believe in statistics, o he thinks that is our error as humans Now he teaches new type of course or understanding o 1/3 business, 1/3 statistics, 1/3 psychology of randomness o Hisexperience has led to his new ideas of Black Swan Black Swan o for centuries Europeans believed that swans were only white. o Then they discovered Australia found black swans and changed years of thought oFuture is interdeterministic –sequence of unexpected, highly improbably but highly consequential events. 3 properties of a Black Swan o Highly improbable (at a certain time) o Immensely consequential– harry potter, war, internet o Perceptively unpredictable BUT retrospectively it is probable as we develop new disciplines.





Intermission “Que Sera Sera” – Great Song! o o Doris Day in...
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