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ITEM 5

GLOBAL WOOD AND WOOD PRODUCTS FLOW
TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES

Table of Contents

GLOBAL WOOD AND WOOD PRODUCTS FLOW - TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES .......................... 1 SUMMARY................................................................................................................................................. 2 INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................................................... 3 INTERNATIONAL TRADE......................................................................................................................... 4 FOREST RESOURCES AND INDUSTRIAL SUPPLY .............................................................................. 5 WOOD AND WOOD PRODUCTSTRENDS............................................................................................. 6 EMERGING AND TRADITIONAL GLOBAL PLAYERS ............................................................................ 9 PERSPECTIVES ..................................................................................................................................... 10 CONCLUSIONS...................................................................................................................................... 12 LITERATURE........................................................................................................................................... 13

1

SUMMARY
Globalization and economic growth are corroborating to increase international trade of wood and wood products and the flow ofcapitals into new investments in the forestry sector of emerging economies. Over the last 20 years international trade of forest products (including pulp and paper, solid wood products and secondary processed wood products-SPWP) increased from US$60 billion to US$257 billion, an average annual growth of 6.6%, with wood panels and especially SPWP, growing above the average. Wood supply from plantationsis already quite important. In Latin America and Caribbean region the pulp and the reconstituted panel is almost entirely supplied with plantation wood. Eucalyptus is the most planted species and largely used for pulp production. At moment eucalyptus wood pulp represents around 50% of all short fibre pulp traded in the international market, and this share is expected to increase to 60% within thenext few years. In the future most of the wood supply will come from plantations. Forest plantations in the tropics are expanding rapidly and if current trend is maintained the annual potential sustainable production capacity of plantations will reach in the year 2020 around 1.8 billion cubic meters per year, with more than 80% of this potential located in the tropics and other countries locatedin the southern hemisphere. This volume would be in principle sufficient to supply most of global wood demand of the industry. Along the last decades production and trade of wood and wood products have been mostly in the hand of European and North American countries, but this is changing. In the last 15 years China has increased its share in the international trade of wood products from 1.5% to7.2% mainly due to exports of SPWP. In wooden furniture China displaced Italy, a long time leader in furniture exports. China together with Brazil and Russia are expected to continue to gain market share and most probably will be among the major players in the international market by the year 2020. Under a conservative scenario wood and wood products trade in the international market will reacharound US$450 billion by the year 2020. This means that countries and companies willing to maintain their market share in the international market will need to double exports in the next 10-15 years. In 2020 a large portion (40% or more) of the international trade is expect to be SPWP. The general trends and perspectives identified point out that a successful strategy to gain market will need to...
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