Принятие Решений

Decision Analysis Case Study

FREEMARK ABBEY WINERY
Khurram Masood’s section

HLCC Consulting Inc. Julian Hong Nicolas Liao Alan Chen Cheng-Chieh Chao

Decision Basis
InformationProbability of rain, mold formation, acidity, sugar level, wine price, reputation value, detector accuracy, spores effectiveness, immigration law

Mr. Jaeger’s Alternatives
Harvest now or later Use detectoror not Buy spores or not Sell in bottle or bulk

Mr. Jaeger’s Preferences
Prefers more money than less Cares about reputation

Uncertainties
Probability of rain, mold formation, acidity, sugarlevel

Decision Diagram
Detector/ No Detector Detector Prediction Acidity Level Harvest/ Not harvest Spores/ No Spores Sugar Level Bottle/ Not Bottle Value $ Botrytise/ Thin wine Rain/ No RainImmigration Law Passed/Failed

Decision Tree

Harvest Now Immigration Law Passed Rain Immigration Law Failed Immigration Law Passed No Rain Immigration Law Failed Mold Develops Mold Develops LowAcidity >= 25% Normal Sugar Acidity < 25% Sugar Low Acidity >= 25% Sugar < 25% Sugar Mold Develops Sell Wine In Bulk No Mold Sell Wine Case Mold Develops Sell Wine In Bulk No Mold Sell Wine Case LowAcidity >= 25% Normal Sugar Acidity < 25% Sugar Low Acidity >= 25% Normal Sugar Acidity < 25% Sugar Normal Acidity

Buy Spores

Do Not Rent Weather Detector Harvest Later Rain Immigration Law FailedImmigration Law Passed

Do Not Buy Spores No Rain

Immigration Law Passed

Immigration Law Failed

Harvest Now Immigration Law Passed Rain Immigration Law Failed Immigration Law Passed NoRain Immigration Law Failed Rent Weather Detector Harvest Later Rain Immigration Law Failed Immigration Law Passed Low Acidity Normal Acidity Mold Develops Mold Develops Low Acidity Normal AcidityBuy Spores

Says Rain

>= 25% Sugar < 25% Sugar

Do Not Buy Spores No Rain

Immigration Law Passed

>= 25% Sugar < 25% Sugar Mold Develops Sell Wine In Bulk No Mold Sell Wine Case Mold...