arbol decision

1.
Pago esperado

S1-

a1 400*66.67% +(-100*33.34)% = 233.1
a2 0*66.67% +100*33.34%= 33.34

Pago esperado

S2-

a1 400*25% +(-100*75%) = 25
a20*25%+ 100*75%= 75

2.
V.E.E = (233.1*0.36+33.34*64%) –Pago esperado sin experimentación
V.E.E = (233.1*0.36+33.34*64% ) –100
V.E.E = 5.2536
V.E.E =(25*0.36+75*64%) –Pago esperado sin experimentación
V.E.E = (25*0.36+75*64% ) –100
V.E.E = -43

60%
=
1)

F(A
G
E
EG
F(A
2)=

EG
EG
F

24%(60%*40%)24%*36% = 66.67%
36%

16%(40%*40%)

16%*64% = 25%

12%(20%*60%)

12%*36% = 33.34%

40
%

0%
2
=
)
F(A1

(A2
)=
80
%

64%
48%(80%*60%)

48%*64% = 75%Perforar

EGF
dio

stu
e
n -30
o
C

320

320
EGD

320
Vender
90
Perforar

60
Vender
90

Sin

320

es
tu Perforar
0 dio

125

Vender
90

=90

=60-1,48
=60

Hay petróleo
800 --- 50%
Seco
-100---- 50%

=770
=-130

VE (770*50% + (-130 * 50%))
= $ 320

Hay petróleo
800 ---14,28%
Seco
-100 --- 85,72%=770
=-130

VE (770*14,28% + (-130 * 85,72%))
= $ -1,48

Hay petróleo
800 --- 25%
Seco
-100 --- 75%

=800
=-100

VE (800*25% + (-100 * 75%))
= $ 125Perforar

EGF
dio
u
st
e
0
n
Co -3
320
Sin
es
t
0 udio

320
EGD

320

320
Vender
90
Perforar

60
Vender
90

Perforar

125

Vender
90

=90

=60
-1,48=60

Hay petróleo
800 --- 50%
Seco
-100---- 50%

=770
=-130

VE (770*50% + (-130 * 50%))
= $ 320

Hay petróleo
800 ---14,28%
Seco
-100 --- 85,72%

=770=-130

VE (770*14,28% + (-130 * 85,72%))
= $ -1,48

Hay petróleo
800 --- 25%
Seco
-100 --- 75%

=800
=-100

VE (800*25% + (-100 * 75%))
= $ 125