Chavez Venezuela : Informe Jane's Intelligence Report

STATE STABILITY

State of health
Venezuela remains uncertain of Chávez’ future
As Venezuela prepares for presidential elections in October, incumbent President Hugo Chávez is fighting both a close political battle and serious illness. Andy WebbVidal examines scenarios for this potentially tumultuous period and beyond.
enezuela’s President Hugo Chávez expects to run for a third, six-year termin office in October. While Chávez is no novice when it comes to election campaigning, and he remains a formidable opponent for any challenger, the former paratroop officer is facing what looks set to be the closest vote since he assumed power. Yet after 13 years in office, it could shape up to be an unlucky year for the self-styled revolutionary, as Chávez is fighting not only a democratic anddetermined bid to unseat him, but is also battling cancer, a situation that has created an extra layer of risk and unpredictability across Venezuela’s already volatile political landscape. After weeks of speculation that he was suffering from a serious illness, in June 2011 a visibly underweight and gaunt Chávez acknowledged he had been diagnosed with cancer. As is the case with other matters ofstate in Venezuela, opacity rather than transparency is the rule: although Chávez said

Key points
• Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez is running for his third term in office in forthcoming presidential elections due in October, although he is facing his possibly strongest political challenge, while also battling serious illness. • Chávez’s PSUV party is riven with factional divisions, whilethere remains no clear succession plan in place should the president become incapacitated, raising concerns about stability should his health worsen. • While the incapacitation of Chávez prior to the election, or his defeat in the poll, would raise the risk of shortterm unrest or insecurity, his entry into a third term in office, even if this was cut short through illness, would mean that certainmore fundamental problems facing Venezuela could remain unaddressed.

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a malignant baseball-sized tumour had been removed from his pelvic region, and that he would undergo treatment in Cuba, the type of cancer and other details have since been kept a closely-guarded secret. The following November, Chávez claimed that Cuban doctors had given him the all-clear after several rounds ofradiotherapy and chemotherapy. Yet in February 2012, Chávez, who will be 58 in July, said a new malignant lesion had been detected, requiring further surgery. The president’s health has become the most critical issue in Venezuelan politics. The lack of clarity over what should be a matter of public interest has had an effect on both Chávez’ political allies, some of whom have glimpsed the possibility of aworld without privilege in the shadow of their supreme leader, and on the opposition, which has been gearing up for the October presidential election. Indeed, on 7 October Chávez is due to face the 39-year-old Henrique Capriles Radonski, a youthful challenger who has more democratic
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30 | Jane’s Intelligence Review May 2012

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Venezuelan militia march during amilitary parade in Caracas, Venezuela, PA: 1454394 in February.

‘The lack of clarity about President Hugo Chávez’ health has become the most critical issue in Venezuelan politics’
Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez, second from left, attends a military ceremony in PA:1454398 Caracas in January.

Risk in May 2012
To assess the likely evolution of risk in Venezuela in the near future and beyondthe October 2012 presidential elections, it is first necessary to analyse the country’s current level of stability. This can be established by examining five factors: political, social, economic, military/security, and external.

legitimacy than any candidate before him, having won a primary election in February 2012. The politically centrist Capriles is making inroads into convincing voters...