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UCAV – THE NEXT GENERATION AIR-SUPERIORITY FIGHTER? BY MAJOR WILLIAM K. LEWIS

A THESIS PRESENTED TO THE FACULTY OF THE SCHOOL OF ADVANCED AIRPOWER STUDIES FOR COMPLETION OF GRADUATION REQUIREMENTS

SCHOOL OF ADVANCED AIRPOWER STUDIES AIR UNIVERSITY MAXWELL AIR FORCE BASE, ALABAMA JUNE 2002

Distribution A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

DISCLAIMER Theconclusions and opinions expressed in this document are those of the author. They do not reflect the official position of the US Government, Department of Defense, the United States Air Force, or Air University.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR Major William K. Lewis was commissioned through the United States Air Force Academy in 1988. He is a senior pilot with more than 2,500 hours in the T-37,T-38, AT-38 and F-15 Eagle. He is a Distinguished Graduate of the Squadron Officer School and the Air Command and Staff College, and is a graduate of the School of Advanced Airpower Studies. Major Lewis is currently assigned to the 56th Air Operations Squadron, Headquarters Pacific Air Forces, Hickam AFB, Hawaii.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I thank the students, faculty and staff of theSchool of Advanced Airpower Studies (SAAS) for all the support contributing to the origin, development, and completion of this study. I would especially like to acknowledge: Dr. David R. Mets for his insightful, encouraging and patient guidance throughout this year; and Col. Stephen D. Chiabotti, Commandant of SAAS, for his influence as a leader, scholar and mentor. They worked hard tomake this pilot objectively evaluate the future of air power. Finally, thanks to my wife, Paige and my children, Nicole and Jake. This may be the only paper I write with an acknowledgments section and I’ve always wanted to say that.

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ABSTRACT Air superiority is an essential military mission, and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. Control of the air is not an end ofits own, but rather it provides the flexibility and freedom of action central to a full range of military capabilities. In the coming century the United States will confront a number of disparate and ambiguous challenges to its hegemony. The resources available to meet those challenges will undoubtedly be constrained. Extremely

long lead times in the acquisition and procurement of newtechnologies mean that now, as the F22 Raptor begins to replace the venerable F-15 Eagle, the next- generation air-superiority fighter is entering development. Unmanned aircraft must be considered as an alternative to manned aircraft for this critical mission. While cost has been the driving factor for advances in UCAV, technology has been the major limitation. This thesis concludes thatan air-superiority UCAV should be feasible by the year 2025 and that it should provide an effective and affordable alternative to manned air-superiority fighters.

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CONTENTS Chapter Page

DISCLAIMER ...........................................................................................................ii ABOUT THE AUTHOR..........................................................................................iii ACKNOWLDEGMENTS ........................................................................................iv 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................1 AIR-SUPERIORITY FIGHTER...............................................................................12 POTENTIALTHREAT............................................................................................27 AIR-SUPERIORITY UCAV REQUIREMENTS....................................................31 AIR-SUPERIORITY UCAV FUTURE CAPABILITIES........................................54 UCAV EFFICIENCY...............................................................................................74...