Delphi-studie

DELIVERING TOMORROW
Customer Needs in 2020 and Beyond A Global Delphi Study

Publisher Deutsche Post AG, Headquarters represented by Holger Winklbauer, Executive Vice President Corporate First Choice 53250 Bonn, Germany Project Director Heike Humpf, Corporate Communications, Deutsche Post AG Project ManageMent anD eDitorial office Monika Schneider, Corporate Communications, Deutsche Post AGart Direction Moritz Sattler, Corporate Communications, Deutsche Post AG stuDy concePt & realization Deekeling Arndt Advisors in Communications, Düsseldorf, Berlin, Frankfurt, Munich cover iMage Adrian Frutiger 1. Edition June 2009 © Deutsche Post AG, Bonn, Germany ISBN 978-3-00-027266-0

Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.John F. Kennedy

Table of Contents

Preface by Frank Appel Objectives, Framework, Method 1. Future Prospects 1.1 A Look at the World in the Year 2020: Global Optimism – New Winners, New Losers 1.1.1 Focus on Energy: Before the Breakthrough to Sustainable Production 1.1.2 Focus on Natural Resources: Still an Important Factor in Power Politics 1.1.3 Focus on Climate: the Big Issue around theWorld Sparks a “Green” Revolution 1.1.4 Focus: Old and New Players in the Globalized World 1.1.5 Focus: Financial Crisis – a Phenomenon That Will Pass 1.1.6 Focus: Technological Developments – “Always On” 1.1.7 Focus: Social Conditions – Inequalitities Grow 1.1.8 Focus: Terrorism, Violence, and Epidemics – No Serious Obstacles to Global Growth 1.1.9 Focus: Values – the Spiritual Self

9 12 17 1919 21 22 26 29 30 35 38 40

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1.2 A Glance at the Customer in the Year 2020: New Demands, New Possibilities 1.2.1 Focus on Climate and Values: the Ethics of Consumption and Its Limits 1.2.2 Focus: New Technologies – the Relationship between People and Machines 1.2.3 Focus: Internet Commerce – the New Culture of Diversity 1.3 A Look at Logistics in the Year 2020: the New Model Industry 1.3.1Focus: Climate – the Central Challenge 1.3.2 Focus: Values – the Ethics of the Logistics Company 1.3.3 Focus: Technological Developments – Radical Changes in the Industry 1.3.4 Focus: a New Understanding of Companies – the Age of Cooperative Efforts 1.3.5 Focus: New Scopes of Responsibilities 1.4 The Most Important Results at a Glance: Ten Trends for the Next Ten Years 2. Detailed Study Results –Theses 1 to 81 Panel of Specialists Index

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43 46 50

52

52 55 56 58

60 65

67 150 154

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Dear Reader,

Today’s companies are confronted with rapidly changing business environments and a seemingly ever-increasing complexity. The current financial and economic crisis is just one – albeit a very significant one – driver of change. Further key driving factors are public andpolitical demands for sustainable business approaches, the limitation of natural resources, and the future role of technological innovation. All business fields − and the logistics industry in particular − will be affected by those developments. More than ever, companies need to be ready to adapt to shifting situations. As a global player in logistics, Deutsche Post DHL makes every effort toprepare its business and customers for the challenges of the future. To this end, we have launched our global Delphi study, “Delivering Tomorrow − Customer Needs in 2020 and Beyond.” The study helps us forecast groundbreaking new trends in consumer and corporate demand over the next twelve years and beyond. With challenges being as complex as they are, we needed our study to cut across boundaries.Therefore, we invited industry experts from various sectors and regions as well as renowned academics with different scientific backgrounds to participate in this study.

A Global Delphi Study

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Over the course of several months, we discussed our ideas with logistics experts, futurologists, as well as economists and gathered evaluations from many of our international clients. The result is...