Energia

2012 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

Contents
Global fundamentals 4

Residential/commercial

10

Transportation

16

Industrial

22

Electricity generation

26

Emissions

32

Supply and technology

36

Conclusion

48

Data/glossary

49

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions,energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil’s internal estimates and forecastsbased upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
Welcome to The Outlook for Energy, ExxonMobil’s long-termview of the world’s energy future. With this edition, we have expanded the Outlook to the year 2040 for the first time.
What do we see over the next 30 years? The answer to that question varies by region, reflecting diverse economic and demographic trends as well as the evolution of technology and government policies. Everywhere, though, we see energy being used more efficiently and energysupplies continuing to diversify as new technologies and sources emerge. Other key findings of this year’s Outlook include: Global energy demand will be about 30 percent higher in 2040 compared to 2010, as economic output more than doubles and prosperity expands across a world whose population will grow to nearly 9 billion people. Energy demand growth will slow as economies mature, efficiency gainsaccelerate and population growth moderates. In the countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) – including countries in North America and Europe – we see energy use remaining essentially flat, even as these countries achieve economic growth and even higher living standards. In contrast, Non OECD energy demand will grow by close to 60 percent. China’s surgein energy demand will extend over the next two decades then gradually flatten as its economy and population mature. Elsewhere, billions of people will be working to advance their living standards – requiring more energy. The need for energy to make electricity will remain the single biggest driver of demand. By 2040, electricity generation will account for more than 40 percent of global energyconsumption. Demand for coal will peak and begin a gradual decline, in part because of emerging policies that will seek to curb emissions by imposing a cost on higher-carbon fuels. Use of renewable energies and nuclear power will grow significantly. Oil, gas and coal continue to be the most widely used fuels, and have the scale needed to meet global demand, making up about 80 percent of totalenergy consumption in 2040. Natural gas will grow fast enough to overtake coal for the number-two position behind oil. Demand for natural gas will rise by more than 60 percent through 2040. For both oil and natural gas, an increasing share of global supply will come from unconventional sources such as those produced from shale formations. Gains in efficiency through energy-saving practices andtechnologies – such as hybrid vehicles and new, highefficiency natural gas power plants – will temper demand growth and curb emissions. Global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions will grow slowly, then level off around 2030. In the United States and Europe, where a shift from coal to less carbon-intensive fuels such as natural gas already is under way, emissions will decline through 2040....