Exportacion

DEUTSCHE BUNDESBANK Monthly Report March 2011

The German balance of payments in 2010
Thanks to the significant impetus contributed by foreign trade, the German current account surplus increased slightly in 2010, but still remained considerably below the record high seen in 2007. German enterprises’ exports recovered very robustly in the wake of the global economic upswing, although thenominal increase in goods imports was a little higher in percentage terms and also broadly based across regions. The German economy’s comparatively strong presence in the Asian emerging market economies is helping to channel the cyclical impulses from what is the current centre of global economic growth to Europe. Germany’s rising demand for imported intermediate goods and its increasing imports ofcapital goods and consumer goods are tending to reduce its external surplus position vis-à-vis the rest of the euro area. 2010 also saw sharp growth in cross-border business-related and financial services on the back of the economic recovery. By contrast, German residents’ propensity to travel is still far below its pre-crisis level. This applies especially to private trips abroad, which werecurtailed noticeably in the face of the recession and have not yet recovered. Revenue from income-related transactions fell further during the reporting period but the corresponding expenditure stabilised after contracting sharply in the two previous years. The current account surplus in 2010 was accompanied by net capital exports totalling €1311/ 2 billion, which was attributable primarily to highoutflows in direct investment and portfolio investment. The worldwide economic recovery revived enterprises’ cross-border operations globally, and the German economy likewise invested more abroad. The net capital exports in portfolio business were due less, however, to the securities transactions of private market participants than to the transfer of balance sheet positions of German banks and theirforeign group companies to resolution agencies. The transactions associated with this also had a distorting effect on cross-border unsecuritised credit transactions. An even bigger quantitative impact ensued from the substantial increase in the Bundesbank’s claims from the TARGET2 payment system (€1471/ 2 billion), which is recorded in the balance of payments as a capital export. These settlementbalances resulted from transfers of central bank money within the Eurosystem and represent a claim on the European Central Bank. The growth of the Bundesbank’s claims under TARGET2 implies no direct change in its level of risk exposure.

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DEUTSCHE BUNDESBANK
EUROSYSTEM

Monthly Report March 2011

Current account Underlying trends
Rise in current account surplus due to higher foreigntrade result

While only goods imports have exceeded their pre-crisis level to date, both imports and exports of business-related services 1, which likewise fluctuate heavily over the course of the business cycle, surpassed this mark. Although the combined assets side of these two cyclically sensitive current account components suffered a sharper decline during the recession, the correspondingimport expenditures rose more strongly than export receipts during the reporting period. The fact that the surplus rose nonetheless is due to the difference in levels in favour of the assets side. The dampening effect of the crisis on travel appears to be lingering longer, however, as resident business travellers and tourists spent significantly less abroad in 2010 than before the crisis. The same istrue of foreign travellers’ spending in Germany. Goods flows and balance of trade Global economic influences had a profound impact on German foreign trade over the past two years. Following the collapse of trade flows on the heels of the global recession in the latter part of 2008 and early part of 2009, the world economy has had an uplifting effect thereafter. The dynamic development of many...