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European

Commission
Community research

World energy, technology and climate policy outlook

WETO

2030

EUR 20366

Interested in European research? RTD info is our quarterly magazine keeping you in touch with main developments (results, programmes, events, etc.). It is available in English, French and German. A free sample copy or free subscription can be obtained from: EuropeanCommission Directorate-General for Research Information and Communication Unit B-1049 Brussels Fax (32-2) 29-58220 E-mail: research@cec.eu.int Internet: http://europa.eu.int/comm/research/

Photograph of Thalys on cover page by courtesy of Thalys International

‘Energy, environment and sustainable development’ programme European Commission Directorate-General for Research Contact: DomenicoRossetti di Valdalbero Tel. (32-2) 29-62811 Fax (32-2) 29-94991 E-mail: domenico.rossetti-di-valdalbero@cec.eu.int

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

W orld e nergy, t echnology and climate policy o utlook 2030 - WETO -

Directorate-General for Research Energy 2003 EUR 20366

A great deal of additional information on the European Union is available on the Internet. It can be accessed through the Europaserver (http://europa.eu.int). Cataloguing data can be found at the end of this publication. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2003 ISBN 92-894-4186-0 © European Communities, 2003 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. Printed in Belgium
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

FOREWORD.......................................................................................................1 KEY MESSAGES................................................................................................3 CHAPTER 1 : CONTEXT AND METHODOLOGY ....................................7
1.1 THE REFERENCE SCENARIO....................................................................................7 1.2UNCERTAINTIES.........................................................................................................8 1.3 POLICY ISSUES............................................................................................................9

CHAPTER 2 : ENERGY AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS TO 2030........13
2.1 KEY ASSUMPTIONS.................................................................................................13 2.2 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY PRICES.......................................................................20 2.3. GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY AND CO2 EMISSIONS.................................24 2.3.1 World energy consumption...............................................................................24 2.3.2 Energy related CO2 emissions..........................................................................32 2.4 PRIMARY FUEL SUPPLY..........................................................................................38 2.4.1 Simulation of oil and gas discovery..................................................................38 2.4.2 World oil supply ...............................................................................................38 2.4.3 World gas supply..............................................................................................42 2.4.4 World coal supply.............................................................................................44

CHAPTER 3 : SECTORAL OUTLOOK ......................................................47
3.1 ENERGYDEMAND....................................................................................................47 3.1.1 Global trends .....................................................................................................47 3.1.2 Regional trends .................................................................................................48 3.1.3 Industry .............................................................................................................50 3.1.4...