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Connections
Patterns of Discovery

H. Peter Alesso and Craig F. Smith

WILEY-INTERSCIENCE A John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Publication

Connections

Connections
Patterns of Discovery

H. Peter Alesso and Craig F. Smith

WILEY-INTERSCIENCE A John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Publication

Copyright © 2008 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.,Hoboken, New Jersey Published simultaneously in Canada No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, orauthorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400, fax 978-750-4700, or on the web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, 201-748-6011, fax 201-748-6008, oronline at http://www.wiley.com/go/permission. Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. Nowarranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or otherdamages. For general information on our other products and services or for technical support, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at 877-762-2974, outside the United States at 317-572-3993 or fax 317-572-4002. Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic formats. For moreinformation about Wiley products, visit our web site at www. wiley.com. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data: Alesso, H. P. Connections: Patterns of discovery / by H. Peter Alesso and Craig F. Smith ; with foreword by James Burke. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-470-11881-8 (cloth) 1. Information technology. 2. Discoveries in science. I. Smith, C. F.(Craig Forsythe), 1950– II. Title. T58.5.A54 2008 004—dc22 2007017344 Printed in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Contents

Foreword Acknowledgments Organization of this Book Introduction Stories / 1 Connecting Information / 4 Patterns / 5 Patterns of Discovery / 5 Forecasting Tools / 9 The Big Picture / 10 Forecasts / 11 Chapter 1. Connecting Information The Google Story /13 The Information Revolution / 20 Defining Information / 21 Looking Good / 23 Google Connects Information / 25 Patterns of Discovery / 27 Forecast for Connecting Information / 27

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CONTENTS

Chapter 2. Connecting Circuits Moore’s Law Story / 31 Edison’s Electric Light / 32 The Vacuum Tube Diode / 33 The First Programmable Computers / 35 ENIAC / 36 The Transistor/ 39 How Transistors Work / 41 Proof of Principle for the Transistor / 42 The Microprocessor / 43 How Microprocessors Work / 45 Moore’s Law / 45 Patterns of Discovery / 47 Forecast for Connecting Circuits / 48 Chapter 3. Connecting Chips The Personal Computer Story / 55 Vannevar Bush / 56 Douglas Engelbart / 56 Robert Taylor / 59 J. C. R. Licklider / 60 Alan Kay / 61 Butler Lampson / 62 Charles...