Latinfocus Consensus Forecast April 2011
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Publicado: 14 de abril de 2011
L ATI N I FO CUS CONSENSUS FORECAST
Contents
Summary .................................... 3 Calendar .................................. 1 7 Argentina ................................. 1 8 Brazil ........................................ 2 8 Chile ......................................... 3 9 Colombia .................................. 5 0 Mexico ..................................... 6 0 Peru.......................................... 7 1 Venezuela ................................ 8 2 Other Countries ...................... 9 1 Bolivia ................................... 91 Ecuador ................................ 94 Paraguay ............................ 100 Uruguay .............................. 103 Notes ...................................... 106 Order Form ............................107
April 2011 December 2010
Publication date: 12 April 2011 Information available: up to and including 10 April Forecasts collected: 4 April - 8 April 2011 Next edition: 10 May 2011
Arne Pohlman Chief Economist Gerardo Morán Senior Economist Armando Ciccarelli Senior Economist
Marcos Felipe Casarin Economist Ricardo Aceves Economist Joan Enric Domene Economist
Mateusz ReimannEconomist Joel Bevin Economist Ricard Torné Economist
© FocusEconomics 2011 ISSN 2013-648X
FOCUSECONOMICS
Economic Forecasts from the World’s Leading Economists
Gran Via 657 E-08010 Barcelona, Spain Phone: +34 932 651 040 Fax: +34 932 650 804 info@focus-economics.com www.focus-economics.com
FOCUSECONOMICS
Summary
April 2011
Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Latin America
20081.7 0.0 0.3 -1.2 9.6 4.4 4.1 3.7 1.5 5.4 6.8 5.2 5.8 8.6 4.8 5.9 6.1 3.5 7.2 9.8 Real GDP, annual variation in % 2009 2010 2011 -2.0 4.2 3.6 -2.6 2.9 3.0 -4.1 1.7 1.8 -6.3 3.9 0.9 9.2 10.3 9.3 -1.7 6.4 4.4 -0.3 3.8 3.7 -1.7 5.2 6.1 -6.1 5.5 4.3 -0.8 7.0 4.2 0.9 9.2 5.7 -0.6 7.5 4.2 -3.8 15.3 4.1 2.6 8.5 5.5 -3.3 -1.4 1.7 1.2 5.5 5.1 3.4 3.8 4.0 1.5 4.3 4.7 0.4 3.6 2.9 0.9 8.8 6.9 2012 3.9 3.2 1.82.2 9.0 4.4 4.3 5.2 4.0 4.3 4.0 4.5 4.4 4.3 2.4 5.1 3.9 4.9 3.1 6.5 2008 4.6 3.8 3.3 1.4 5.9 8.3 9.6 7.1 6.5 9.3 7.2 5.9 7.5 9.2 31.9 7.7 11.9 7.7 8.8 6.7 Consumer Prices, variation in % 2009 2010 2011 0.9 2.7 3.2 -0.4 1.6 2.4 0.3 1.6 2.2 -1.4 -0.7 0.1 -0.7 3.3 4.5 5.7 6.6 6.6 1.5 5.2 5.5 -1.4 3.0 4.4 3.6 4.4 3.9 8.0 8.4 8.5 7.7 10.9 11.1 4.3 5.9 5.8 1.9 7.2 5.5 5.9 6.9 6.8 26.9 27.4 29.3 1.7 3.03.5 0.3 7.2 5.1 2.0 3.2 3.5 4.3 3.3 3.9 0.2 2.1 3.1 2012 2.8 1.8 1.8 0.2 3.5 6.3 5.5 3.3 3.7 8.1 14.1 4.8 5.4 5.8 27.5 3.4 6.2 3.7 3.6 2.6
World United States Euro area Japan China Latin America Central America Chile Mexico Mercosur Argentina Brazil Paraguay Uruguay Venezuela Andean Com. Bolivia Colombia Ecuador Peru
Gross Domestic Product, ann. var. in %
15 2009 10 2010 2011 2012 6 8 2009Consumer Prices, ann. var. in %
2010
2011
2012
5
4
0
2
-5
0
-10 World United States Euro area Japan China Latin America
-2 World United States Euro area Japan China Latin America
World United States Euro area Japan China Latin America Central America Chile Mexico Mercosur Argentina Brazil Paraguay Uruguay Venezuela Andean Com. Bolivia Colombia Ecuador Peru2008 -2.2 -3.2 -2.0 -4.2 -0.4 -0.7 -1.1 4.3 -0.1 -1.5 1.4 -2.0 2.5 -1.8 -1.2 0.9 3.2 0.5 -0.9 2.1
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP 2009 2010 2011 -6.8 -6.2 -5.6 -10.0 -8.9 -9.1 -6.3 -6.2 -4.7 -8.8 -8.6 -8.9 -2.2 -1.6 -1.9 -2.9 -2.3 -2.4 -3.4 -3.6 -3.2 -4.5 -0.4 0.5 -2.3 -2.8 -2.4 -3.2 -2.1 -2.6 -0.6 0.2 -1.5 -3.3 -2.6 -2.8 1.2 -0.1 -0.2 -1.9 -1.7 -0.5 -5.1 -2.2 -3.2 -2.2 -2.3 -2.4 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -2.1-3.1 -3.3 -4.3 -3.9 -3.4 -1.9 -0.6 -0.3
2012 -4.5 -7.2 -3.8 -8.7 -1.7 -2.2 -2.6 0.3 -2.2 -2.5 -1.2 -2.6 -0.6 -0.7 -4.3 -1.8 0.0 -2.4 -4.5 0.2
2008 0.0 -4.7 -1.4 3.2 9.4 -0.7 -9.3 -1.9 -1.5 0.6 2.1 -1.5 -3.4 -4.7 12.0 -2.1 12.0 -2.8 2.0 -4.2
Current Account, % of GDP 2009 2010 2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.7 -3.2 -3.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 2.8 3.6 3.1 6.0 5.2 4.1 -0.4 -1.2 -1.5 -1.9 -5.5 -5.8 1.6 1.9 -0.3...
Contents
Summary .................................... 3 Calendar .................................. 1 7 Argentina ................................. 1 8 Brazil ........................................ 2 8 Chile ......................................... 3 9 Colombia .................................. 5 0 Mexico ..................................... 6 0 Peru.......................................... 7 1 Venezuela ................................ 8 2 Other Countries ...................... 9 1 Bolivia ................................... 91 Ecuador ................................ 94 Paraguay ............................ 100 Uruguay .............................. 103 Notes ...................................... 106 Order Form ............................107
April 2011 December 2010
Publication date: 12 April 2011 Information available: up to and including 10 April Forecasts collected: 4 April - 8 April 2011 Next edition: 10 May 2011
Arne Pohlman Chief Economist Gerardo Morán Senior Economist Armando Ciccarelli Senior Economist
Marcos Felipe Casarin Economist Ricardo Aceves Economist Joan Enric Domene Economist
Mateusz ReimannEconomist Joel Bevin Economist Ricard Torné Economist
© FocusEconomics 2011 ISSN 2013-648X
FOCUSECONOMICS
Economic Forecasts from the World’s Leading Economists
Gran Via 657 E-08010 Barcelona, Spain Phone: +34 932 651 040 Fax: +34 932 650 804 info@focus-economics.com www.focus-economics.com
FOCUSECONOMICS
Summary
April 2011
Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Latin America
20081.7 0.0 0.3 -1.2 9.6 4.4 4.1 3.7 1.5 5.4 6.8 5.2 5.8 8.6 4.8 5.9 6.1 3.5 7.2 9.8 Real GDP, annual variation in % 2009 2010 2011 -2.0 4.2 3.6 -2.6 2.9 3.0 -4.1 1.7 1.8 -6.3 3.9 0.9 9.2 10.3 9.3 -1.7 6.4 4.4 -0.3 3.8 3.7 -1.7 5.2 6.1 -6.1 5.5 4.3 -0.8 7.0 4.2 0.9 9.2 5.7 -0.6 7.5 4.2 -3.8 15.3 4.1 2.6 8.5 5.5 -3.3 -1.4 1.7 1.2 5.5 5.1 3.4 3.8 4.0 1.5 4.3 4.7 0.4 3.6 2.9 0.9 8.8 6.9 2012 3.9 3.2 1.82.2 9.0 4.4 4.3 5.2 4.0 4.3 4.0 4.5 4.4 4.3 2.4 5.1 3.9 4.9 3.1 6.5 2008 4.6 3.8 3.3 1.4 5.9 8.3 9.6 7.1 6.5 9.3 7.2 5.9 7.5 9.2 31.9 7.7 11.9 7.7 8.8 6.7 Consumer Prices, variation in % 2009 2010 2011 0.9 2.7 3.2 -0.4 1.6 2.4 0.3 1.6 2.2 -1.4 -0.7 0.1 -0.7 3.3 4.5 5.7 6.6 6.6 1.5 5.2 5.5 -1.4 3.0 4.4 3.6 4.4 3.9 8.0 8.4 8.5 7.7 10.9 11.1 4.3 5.9 5.8 1.9 7.2 5.5 5.9 6.9 6.8 26.9 27.4 29.3 1.7 3.03.5 0.3 7.2 5.1 2.0 3.2 3.5 4.3 3.3 3.9 0.2 2.1 3.1 2012 2.8 1.8 1.8 0.2 3.5 6.3 5.5 3.3 3.7 8.1 14.1 4.8 5.4 5.8 27.5 3.4 6.2 3.7 3.6 2.6
World United States Euro area Japan China Latin America Central America Chile Mexico Mercosur Argentina Brazil Paraguay Uruguay Venezuela Andean Com. Bolivia Colombia Ecuador Peru
Gross Domestic Product, ann. var. in %
15 2009 10 2010 2011 2012 6 8 2009Consumer Prices, ann. var. in %
2010
2011
2012
5
4
0
2
-5
0
-10 World United States Euro area Japan China Latin America
-2 World United States Euro area Japan China Latin America
World United States Euro area Japan China Latin America Central America Chile Mexico Mercosur Argentina Brazil Paraguay Uruguay Venezuela Andean Com. Bolivia Colombia Ecuador Peru2008 -2.2 -3.2 -2.0 -4.2 -0.4 -0.7 -1.1 4.3 -0.1 -1.5 1.4 -2.0 2.5 -1.8 -1.2 0.9 3.2 0.5 -0.9 2.1
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP 2009 2010 2011 -6.8 -6.2 -5.6 -10.0 -8.9 -9.1 -6.3 -6.2 -4.7 -8.8 -8.6 -8.9 -2.2 -1.6 -1.9 -2.9 -2.3 -2.4 -3.4 -3.6 -3.2 -4.5 -0.4 0.5 -2.3 -2.8 -2.4 -3.2 -2.1 -2.6 -0.6 0.2 -1.5 -3.3 -2.6 -2.8 1.2 -0.1 -0.2 -1.9 -1.7 -0.5 -5.1 -2.2 -3.2 -2.2 -2.3 -2.4 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -2.1-3.1 -3.3 -4.3 -3.9 -3.4 -1.9 -0.6 -0.3
2012 -4.5 -7.2 -3.8 -8.7 -1.7 -2.2 -2.6 0.3 -2.2 -2.5 -1.2 -2.6 -0.6 -0.7 -4.3 -1.8 0.0 -2.4 -4.5 0.2
2008 0.0 -4.7 -1.4 3.2 9.4 -0.7 -9.3 -1.9 -1.5 0.6 2.1 -1.5 -3.4 -4.7 12.0 -2.1 12.0 -2.8 2.0 -4.2
Current Account, % of GDP 2009 2010 2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.7 -3.2 -3.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 2.8 3.6 3.1 6.0 5.2 4.1 -0.4 -1.2 -1.5 -1.9 -5.5 -5.8 1.6 1.9 -0.3...
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