Lic. en economía

Latin America Equity Research
20 April 2009

Argentine Banks
Introducing 2009 Quarterly Estimates for Argentine Banks
In this research note, we introduce our 2009 quarterly earnings estimates for the Argentine banks in our coverage universe.
• Introducing our 2009 quarterly EPS and net income estimates for Banco Macro. Our EPS estimates for the four quarters are US$0.76, US$0.72, US$0.69,and US$0.67 per share for 1Q09 to 4Q09. These correspond to net income estimates of A$166mn, A$167mn, A$169mn, and A$171mn for the four quarters, respectively. Our estimates entail ROEs of 22.9%, 22.5%, 22.2%, and 21.4% for each quarter. The introduction of our quarterly earnings estimates does not change our full year net income estimate, our rating, or our price target. We estimate FY09 netincome of A$675mn. We maintain an Underweight rating for Banco Macro and a December 2009 price target of US$9 per share. • Introducing our 2009 quarterly EPS and net income estimates for Banco Frances. Our EPS estimates for the four quarters are US$0.20, US$0.19, US$0.19, and US$0.18 per share for 1Q09 to 4Q09. These correspond to net income estimates of A$112mn, A$114mn, A$117mn, and A$119mn,respectively. Our estimates entail ROEs of 21.1%, 20.9%, 20.8%, and 20.1% for each quarter. The introduction of our quarterly earnings estimates does not change our full year net income estimate or our rating. We estimate FY09 net income of A$463mn. We maintain an Underweight rating for Banco Frances. • Introducing our 2009 quarterly EPS and net income estimates for Grupo Financiero Galicia. Our quarterlyEPS estimates for the four quarters are US$0.08, US$0.08, US$0.09, and US$0.09 per share for 1Q09 to 4Q09. These correspond to net income estimates of A$34.3mn, A$36.8mn, A$44.6mn, and A$47mn, respectively. Our estimates entail ROEs of 7.4%, 7.8%, 9.2%, and 9.5% for each quarter. The introduction of our quarterly earnings estimates does not change our full year net income estimate or our rating.We estimate FY09 net income of A$165mn. We maintain an Underweight rating for Grupo Financiero Galicia.
Banks Saul Martinez
AC

(1-212) 622-3602 saul.martinez@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.

Frederic de Mariz

*

(5511) 3048 3398 frederic.de.mariz@jpmorgan.com Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

Summary Ratings and Estimates
Company Banco Macro Banco Patagonia prior BBVA Banco FrancesGrupo Financiero Galicia Price ($) 10.55 (APs) 1.48 ($) 2.86 ($) 2.06 Rating UW UW UW UW Price Target ($) 9.00 (APs) — 0.00 (APs) 1.00 PT End Date Dec-09 — Apr-09 Dec-09 Metric EPS Reported EPS - Recurring EPS Reported EPS Reported Current FYE ($) 2.85 (APs) 0.27 ($) 0.67 ($) 0.31 Next FYE ($) 2.83 (APs) 0.30

Source: Company data, Reuters, J.P. Morgan estimates. All prices as at 17 Apr 09.

*Registered/qualified as a research analyst under NYSE/NASD rules

See page 5 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Customers of J.P. Morgan in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at www.morganmarkets.com or can call 1-800-477-0406 tollfree to request a copy of this research.

Saul Martinez (1-212) 622-3602 saul.martinez@jpmorgan.com

Latin America Equity Research 20 April 2009

• Introducing our 2009 quarterly EPS and net income estimates for Banco Patagonia. Our quarterly earnings estimates for each of the four quarters are A$0.07 per share. These correspond to net income estimates of A$50mn, A$51.6mn, A$51.1mn, and...