Los japoneces invierten en mexico

CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, VOL. 45 (NOVIEMBRE), PP. 293-302, 2008
A NOTE ON THE EXPORT-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS:
A TIME SERIES APPROACH*
PER-OLA MANESCHIÖLD
School of Business and Engineering, Halmstad University, Sweden
The export-led growth hypothesis is analysed for Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico
using cointegration and causality techniques. Cointegration is found for Argentina
and Mexico inboth a pre-break and post-break period, where the break is related
to the introduction of the NAFTA. Furthermore, the causal relationship is either
bi-directional or unidirectional from export to GDP revealing support to the
hypothesis and an outward oriented policy.
JEL: F43; C22
Keywords: Export-Led Growth; Coititegratioti; Causality; Argentitia; Brazil;
Mexico.
L INTRODUCTION
The role ofexport to improve the growth potetitial of a country occupies
the cetitre stage in especially developmetit literature where export promotion
and increased openness gradually have replaced import substitution to enhance
growth. This shift from import substitution to export promotion and increased
openness implies as well a shift in the trade and industry policy from being highly
importsubstituting and government controlled to become more liberalised and
deregulated. This shift in policies has also been central in policy recommendations
to developing countries concerning improvements of their growth potential. An
increased openness to trade will enhance competition for firms producing for the
international market. Such an environment generates incentives for an Increasedproductivity and incentives for innovations as well as the possibility to pay higher
wages in line with the increased productivity. Furthermore, an increased openness
to trade is also central in international negotiations about trade and tariff barriers
where trade theory suggests that all parties on aggregate will enhance their welfare
position in relation to their autarky situation.
* E-mail:per-ola.maneschiold@hh.se
294 CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA Vol. 45 (Noviembre) 2008
A number of empirical studies have documented a strong and positive
relationship between export and economic growth including Michaely (1977),
Balassa (1978), Tyler (1981), Balassa (1985), Chow (1987), Darrat (1987), Khan
and Saqib (1993), Singupta and España (1994), McCarville and Nnadozie (1995),
Thornton (1996), Panasand Vamvoukas (2002), Abual-Foul (2004) and Awokuse
(2004) among others. The results reveal evidence in support of the export-led growth
hypothesis for various countries. Furthermore, various studies have established
a unidirectional causality from export to output while other studies as well have
established evidence in support of a unidirectional causation from output growth
to export.During the 198O's and 199O's, many Latin American countries liberalised
their trade policy towards a more outward oriented policy. Some of the arguments
for the more liberalised trade pohcy was related to an increased international competition
generating a more efficient use of scarce resources and increased export
opportunities. As a consequence of such an improved situation, economic growthand welfare was expected to improve. Using Granger causality tests in a cointegrating
framework, this paper analyse the link between export and economic growth
in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico covering as well the period after the introduction
of the NAFTA. This allow the possibility to compare the effect of the introduction
of a Free Trade Area into the relationship given that Mexico is a memberof the
NAFTA which is not the case for Argentina and Brazil. Furthermore, the relative
economic importance in the region for Argentina, Brazil and Mexico motivates
the choice of the countries. In relation to total GDP in current US-dollars for Latin
America and the Caribbean, Argentina did account for 10.6 percent, Brazil for
32.2 percent and Mexico for 26.6 percent of total GDP in the...