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Highlights
World marketed energy consumption increases by 49 percent from 2007 to 2035
in the Reference case. Total energy demand in the non-OECD countries increases
by 84 percent, compared with an increase of 14 percent in the OECD countries.
In the IEO2010 Reference case—which reflects a scenario
assuming that current laws and policies remain
unchanged throughout the projectionperiod—world
marketed energy consumption grows by 49 percent
from 2007 to 2035. Total world energy use rises from 495
quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2007 to 590
quadrillion Btu in 2020 and 739 quadrillion Btu in 2035
(Figure 1).
The global economic recession that began in 2007 and
continued into 2009 has had a profound impact on world
energy demand in the near term. Total world marketedenergy consumption contracted by 1.2 percent in 2008
and by an estimated 2.2 percent in 2009, as manufacturing and consumer demand for goods and services
declined. Although the recession appears to have ended,
the pace of recovery has been uneven so far, with China
and India leading and Japan and the European Union
member countries lagging. In the Reference case, as the
economic situationimproves, most nations return to the
economic growth paths that were anticipated before the
recession began.

Figure 1. World marketed energy consumption,
2007-2035 (quadrillion Btu)
800

739

Non-OECD
OECD

687

The IEO2010 Reference case projects increased world
consumption of marketed energy from all fuel sources
over the 2007-2035 projection period (Figure 2). Fossil
fuels(liquid fuels and other petroleum,2 natural gas, and
coal) are expected to continue supplying much of the
energy used worldwide. Although liquid fuels remain
the largest source of energy, the liquids share of world

Figure 2. World marketed energy use by fuel type,
1990-2035 (quadrillion Btu)
250

History

Projections

639
590

600

The most rapid growth in energy demand from 2007
to2035 occurs in nations outside the Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development1 (nonOECD nations). Total non-OECD energy consumption
increases by 84 percent in the Reference case, compared
with a 14-percent increase in energy use among the
OECD countries. Strong long-term growth in gross
domestic product (GDP) in the emerging economies of
non-OECD countries drives the fast-pacedgrowth in
energy demand. In all the non-OECD regions combined,
economic activity—as measured by GDP in purchasing
power parity terms—increases by 4.4 percent per year
on average, compared with an average of 2.0 percent per
year for OECD countries.

200

543
495

Liquids
150
Coal

400

Natural gas

100
200

Renewables

50

Nuclear
0
2007

2015

2020

2025

20302035

0
1990

2000

2007

2015

2025

2035

1 Current OECD member countries (as of March 10, 2010) are the United States, Canada, Mexico, Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, Japan, SouthKorea, Australia, and New Zealand. Chile became a
member on May 7, 2010, but its membership is not reflected in IEO2010.
2 Liquid fuels and other petroleum include petroleum-derived fuels and non-petroleum-derived liquid fuels, such as ethanol and
biodiesel, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids. Petroleum coke, which is a solid, is included. Also included are natural gas liquids, crude oilconsumed as a fuel, and liquid hydrogen.

U.S. Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2010

1

marketed energy consumption falls from 35 percent in
2007 to 30 percent in 2035, as projected high world oil
prices lead many energy users to switch away from liquid fuels when feasible. In the Reference case, the use of
liquids grows modestly or declines in all...