Packers

Will the Packers go undfeated this season - a good bet?
This is an interesting bet that I believe provides value. Right now you can take the "No" on this proposition for -170 (sportsbook.eu, betus)to -190 (diamond, bookmaker).
How do we determine if this is a good bet? Well, we need to estimate the Packer's chances of winning all of their final five games. I may be in the minority, but I don'tthink this team is as bullet-proof as most think. Their defense is bad and that means they are not guaranteed to win on any given Sunday. The Packers play the Giants this week, followed by theRaiders, Chiefs, Bears and Lions. In order to estimate their chances of winning all five, we need to estimate their chances of winning each individually.
I'll make some assumptions here which may be rightor wrong. Feel free to adjust as you see fit. I assume that the Packers will not rest players and there are no new major injuries (if either happened, it only helps a bet on the "No"). Here's myestimate as to the lines the Packers will face the rest of the way:
@Giants -7
Raiders -11
@Chiefs -14
Bears -7
Lions -7
If we use those assumptions, then we can translate those to moneylines (theodds that the Pack will win each game). Note that the moneylines I provide below are the "fair" moneylines (do not include sportsbook juice). Those translations are as follows:
@Giants: -260
Raiders:-600
@Chiefs: -2000
Bears: -260
Liions: -260
Each of these moneylines can then be translated into a percentage chance of winning each game:
@Giants: 72%
Raiders: 86%
@Chiefs 90%
Bears: 75%Lions: 75%
To estimate the chances that Green Bay will win all five, we simply multiply those five percentages: 72% x 86% x 90% x 75% x 75% = 31%
So, despite the fact that Green Bay is likely to be abig favorite in every game, the Packers have just a 31% chance of winning all five of their remaining games. Lower than you thought? Again, feel free to adjust the assumptions on lines, but it's...