Presicion Tree
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User’s Guide
PrecisionTree
Decision Analysis Add-In For Microsoft Excel
October, 2004
Palisade Corporation 31 Decker Road Newfield, NY 14867 (607) 277-8000 http://www.palisade.com
Copyright Notice
Copyright © 1996-2004, Palisade Corporation
Trademark Acknowledgments
PrecisionTree, TopRank, BestFit and Palisade are registered trademarks of Palisade Corporation. RISK is atrademark of Parker Brothers, Division of Tonka Corporation, and is used under license. Microsoft, Excel and Windows are registered trademarks of Microsoft Corporation.
Welcome
Welcome to PrecisionTree, the decision analysis software that's an add-in to Microsoft Excel. Now you can do something you've never been able to do before - define a decision tree or influence diagram directly in yourspreadsheet. PrecisionTree allows you to run a complete decision analysis without leaving the program where your data is – your spreadsheet!
Why You Need Decision Analysis and PrecisionTree
You might wonder if the decisions you make are suitable for decision analysis. If you are looking for a way to structure your decisions to make them more organized and easier to explain to others, youdefinitely should consider using formal decision analysis. When faced with a complex decision, decision makers must be able to organize the problem efficiently. They have to consider all possible options by analyzing all available information. In addition, they need to present this information to others in a clear, concise format. PrecisionTree allows decision makers to do all this, and more! But, whatexactly does decision analysis allow you to do? As the decision maker, you can clarify options and rewards, describe uncertainty quantitatively, weigh multiple objectives simultaneously and define risk preferences. All in an Excel spreadsheet.
Modeling Features
PrecisionTree and Microsoft Excel As an "add-in" to Microsoft Excel, PrecisionTree "links" directly to Excel to add Decision Analysiscapabilities. The PrecisionTree system provides all the necessary tools for setting up and analyzing decision trees and influence diagrams. And PrecisionTree works in a style you are familiar with — Excel-style menus and toolbars. With PrecisionTree, there's no limit to the size tree you can define. Design a tree which spans multiple worksheets in an Excel workbook! PrecisionTree reduces the tree toan easy-to-understand report right in your current workbook.
Welcome i
PrecisionTree Nodes
PrecisionTree allows you to define influence diagram and decision tree nodes in Excel spreadsheets. Node types offered by PrecisionTree include: ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ Chance nodes Decision nodes End nodes Logic nodes Reference nodes
Values and probabilities for nodes are placed directly in spreadsheet cells,allowing you to easily enter and edit the definition of your decision models. Model Types PrecisionTree creates both decision trees and influence diagrams. Influence diagrams are excellent for showing the relationship between events and the general structure of a decision clearly and concisely, while decision trees outline the chronological and numerical details of the decision. In PrecisionTree,all decision model values and probabilities are entered directly in spreadsheet cells, just like other Excel models. PrecisionTree can also link values in a decision model directly to locations you specify in a spreadsheet model. The results of that model are then used as the payoffs for each path through the decision tree. All calculations of payoffs happen in “real-time” – that is, as you edityour tree, all payoffs and node values are automatically recalculated. Decision Analysis PrecisionTree's decision analyses give you straightforward reports including statistical reports, risk profiles and policy suggestions* (*PrecisionTree Pro only). And, decision analysis can produce more qualitative results by helping you understand tradeoffs, conflicts of interest, and important objectives....
PrecisionTree
Decision Analysis Add-In For Microsoft Excel
October, 2004
Palisade Corporation 31 Decker Road Newfield, NY 14867 (607) 277-8000 http://www.palisade.com
Copyright Notice
Copyright © 1996-2004, Palisade Corporation
Trademark Acknowledgments
PrecisionTree, TopRank, BestFit and Palisade are registered trademarks of Palisade Corporation. RISK is atrademark of Parker Brothers, Division of Tonka Corporation, and is used under license. Microsoft, Excel and Windows are registered trademarks of Microsoft Corporation.
Welcome
Welcome to PrecisionTree, the decision analysis software that's an add-in to Microsoft Excel. Now you can do something you've never been able to do before - define a decision tree or influence diagram directly in yourspreadsheet. PrecisionTree allows you to run a complete decision analysis without leaving the program where your data is – your spreadsheet!
Why You Need Decision Analysis and PrecisionTree
You might wonder if the decisions you make are suitable for decision analysis. If you are looking for a way to structure your decisions to make them more organized and easier to explain to others, youdefinitely should consider using formal decision analysis. When faced with a complex decision, decision makers must be able to organize the problem efficiently. They have to consider all possible options by analyzing all available information. In addition, they need to present this information to others in a clear, concise format. PrecisionTree allows decision makers to do all this, and more! But, whatexactly does decision analysis allow you to do? As the decision maker, you can clarify options and rewards, describe uncertainty quantitatively, weigh multiple objectives simultaneously and define risk preferences. All in an Excel spreadsheet.
Modeling Features
PrecisionTree and Microsoft Excel As an "add-in" to Microsoft Excel, PrecisionTree "links" directly to Excel to add Decision Analysiscapabilities. The PrecisionTree system provides all the necessary tools for setting up and analyzing decision trees and influence diagrams. And PrecisionTree works in a style you are familiar with — Excel-style menus and toolbars. With PrecisionTree, there's no limit to the size tree you can define. Design a tree which spans multiple worksheets in an Excel workbook! PrecisionTree reduces the tree toan easy-to-understand report right in your current workbook.
Welcome i
PrecisionTree Nodes
PrecisionTree allows you to define influence diagram and decision tree nodes in Excel spreadsheets. Node types offered by PrecisionTree include: ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ Chance nodes Decision nodes End nodes Logic nodes Reference nodes
Values and probabilities for nodes are placed directly in spreadsheet cells,allowing you to easily enter and edit the definition of your decision models. Model Types PrecisionTree creates both decision trees and influence diagrams. Influence diagrams are excellent for showing the relationship between events and the general structure of a decision clearly and concisely, while decision trees outline the chronological and numerical details of the decision. In PrecisionTree,all decision model values and probabilities are entered directly in spreadsheet cells, just like other Excel models. PrecisionTree can also link values in a decision model directly to locations you specify in a spreadsheet model. The results of that model are then used as the payoffs for each path through the decision tree. All calculations of payoffs happen in “real-time” – that is, as you edityour tree, all payoffs and node values are automatically recalculated. Decision Analysis PrecisionTree's decision analyses give you straightforward reports including statistical reports, risk profiles and policy suggestions* (*PrecisionTree Pro only). And, decision analysis can produce more qualitative results by helping you understand tradeoffs, conflicts of interest, and important objectives....
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