pronosticos

PRÁCTICA N° 1: PRONÓSTICOS

EJERCICIOS:

dia/semana
4
3
2
1
l
2200
2400
2300
2400
m
2000
2100
2200
2200
m
2300
2400
2300
2500
j
1800
1900
1800
2000
v
1900
1800
21002000
s
2800
2700
3000
2900
total semana
 
 
 
 
1.









promedio movil simple
promedio movil ponderado
suavizamiento exponencial
 
2325
2300
2100
22500
2125
20902110
20470
2375
2350
2149
18673
1875
1850
2134.1
17005.7
1950
1920
2120.69
15505.13
2850
2820
2198.621
14244.617



2. A)

MESES
DEMANDA (Yt)
Y*
|Yt - Y*|
(Yt - Y*)2
|Yt -Y*|/ Yt
(Yt - Y*)/ Yt
1
48.5
 
 
 
 
 
2
46
48.5
2.5
6.25
0.05434783
-0.05434783
3
54.4
46
8.4
70.56
0.15441176
0.15441176
4
49.8
54.4
4.6
21.16
0.09236948
-0.09236948
548.1
49.8
1.7
2.89
0.03534304
-0.03534304
6
55
48.1
6.9
47.61
0.12545455
0.12545455
7
47.7
55
7.3
53.29
0.15303983
-0.15303983
8
45.2
47.7
2.5
6.25
0.05530973
-0.05530973
951
45.2
5.8
33.64
0.11372549
0.11372549
10
47.5
51
3.5
12.25
0.07368421
-0.07368421
11
49.1
47.5
1.6
2.56
0.03258656
0.03258656
12
50.8
49.1
1.7
2.89
0.03346457
0.0334645713
48.9
50.8
1.9
3.61
0.03885481
-0.03885481
14
49.5
48.9
0.6
0.36
0.01212121
0.01212121
15
59
49.5
9.5
90.25
0.16101695
0.16101695
16
56
59
3
9
0.05357143
-0.05357143
1749.3
56
6.7
44.89
0.13590264
-0.13590264
18
58.5
49.3
9.2
84.64
0.15726496
0.15726496
19
53
58.5
5.5
30.25
0.10377358
-0.10377358
20
48.6
53
4.4
19.36
0.09053498
-0.0905349821
50.8
48.6
2.2
4.84
0.04330709
0.04330709
22
53.4
50.8
2.6
6.76
0.04868914
0.04868914
23
49.8
53.4
3.6
12.96
0.07228916
-0.07228916
24
56.3
49.8
6.5
42.25
0.115452930.11545293
25
 
56.3
 
 
 
 



102.2
608.52
1.95651591
0.03847449
n
23
23
23
23
MAD
4.44347826
 
 
 
MSE
 
26.4573913
 
 
MAPE
 
 
0.08506591
 
MPE
 
 
 ...