Scenario Planning

Scenario Planning:

What is Scenario Planning
"Scenario Planning is a disciplined method for imagining possible futures that companies have applied to a great range of issues."(Schoemaker, 1995).The method is based on creating different futures and is generated from known factors such as demographics; (PESTLE) trends which are key driving forces. The goal is to predict different futures withthis forces. The method can also include elements that are difficult to formalize, such as subjective interpretations of facts, shifts in values, new regulations or inventions.
The processes havethe dual purpose of increasing knowledge of the environment in which you operate and widening the participant's perception of possible future events.
Potential Uses
It can be used in different levelsof the organization and in many contexts, and some are this:
* Create a stimulating, joint context.
* Risk analysis.
* Generate ideas.
* Testing or 'wind-tunneling'.
There are anumber of benefits including the additional insight and the variety of perspectives on what the future could be.
Successful Scenario Planning
There are a number of tools that can be useful in thestrategic management process and some of these are tools and techniques library, other core infoKits, include Risk Management, Portfolio Management and Change Management. Also they can used to complementother approaches such as contingency planning and sensitivity analysis.
Scenario Sets
In 2007, JISC contracted CIBIT to develop a scenario toolkit based on their existing work across Europeanbusiness, adding an education and more specifically IT perspective to their generic scenarios by running a series of pilot workshops and synthesizing participants' contributions.
* Level 0: Four FuturesFor Europe: Generic scenarios compiled from a 2004 European scenario study.
* Level 1: HE Scenario Skeleton: Synthesis from the JISC pilot workshops.
* Level 2: IT in the HE Scenarios:...