Simulador Finanzas
| | bell | | | tell | | |
| Estado de la economía | Probabilidad de ocurrencia (P) | Tasa de Rendimiento K | ^ | Probabilidad de ocurrencia (P) | Tasa de Rendimiento K | ^ |
| | | | K | | | K |
| Auge | 0.1 | -70% | -7.00% | 0.1 | -40% | -4.00% |
| Crecimiento | 0.2 | -20% | -4.00% | 0.2| -30% | -6.00% |
| Normal | 0.4 | 30% | 12.00% | 0.3 | 20% | 6.00% |
| Desaceleración | 0.2 | 40% | 8.00% | 0.3 | 30% | 9.00% |
| Recesión | 0.1 | 50% | 5.00% | 0.1 | 50% | 5.00% |
| | 1 | (TER)= | 14.00% | 1 | (TER)= | 10.00% |
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| SOLUCION POR MEDIO DE FORMULA: | | | | | |
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| | bell | | |
| ^ | ( | ) + ( | ) + ( )* | ) + ( ) + | ) + ( )* | ) |
| TER = k = P1K1 + P2K2…. + P5K5 = | | | | | | |
| ^ | 0.1| -70% | 0.4 | 30% | 0.1 | 50% |
| k = | | 0.2 | -20% | 20% | 40% | |
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| ^ | | | |
| K = | -7.00% | -4.00% | 12.00% | 8.00% | 5.00% | |
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| 1)a Tasa de Rend. Esperada K = | 14.00% | | | | | |
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| | tell | | |
| ^ | ( | ) + ( | ) + ()* | ) + ( ) + | ) + ( )* | ) |
| TER = k = P1K1 + P2K2…. + P5K5 = | | | | | | |
| ^ | 0.1 | -40% | 0.3 | 20% | 0.1 | 50% |
| k = | | 0.2 | -30% | 30% | 30% | |
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|^ | | | |
| K = | -4.00% | -6.00% | 6.00% | 9.00% | 5.00% | |
| ^ | | | | | |
| 1)b Tasa de Rend. Esperada K = | 10.00% | | | | | |
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| | SOLUCIÓN POR MEDIO DE TABLA: | | | |
| bell | | | |
1 | 2 y 4 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Pi | Ki | K | K (TER) | Desviación | Desv. al 2 | Pi | Varianza |
| | 1 x 2 | SUM de 3 | 4 + 5 | (6)al 2 | Igual a 1 | 7 x 8 |
0.1 | -70.0% | -7.0% | -14 | -84.00 | 7056 | 0.1 | 705.6 |
0.2 | -20.0% | -4.0% | -14 | -34.00 | 1156 | 0.2 | 231.2 |
0.4 | 30.0% | 12.0% | -14 | 16.00 | 256 | 0.4 | 102.4 |
0.2 | 40.0% | 8.0% | -14 |26.00 | 676 | 0.2 | 135.2 |
0.1 | 50.0% | 5.0% | -14 | 36.00 | 1296 | 0.1 | 129.6 |
1 | TER= | 14.00% | 100.00% | | | | 1304.0 |
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| DESVIACION ESTÁNDARD= 2√∑(ki-k)² (Pi)= | = 2√ | 1304.0 | | | | |
| 2)a DESVIACION ESTANDARD= | 36.11% | | | | | |
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| CV = |Desviacion Estándar / K | | | | |
| = | 36.11% | / | 14.00% | | | |
| 2)a Coef. De Variación CV = | 2.5794 | v | | | | |
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| tell | | | | |
1 | 2 y 4 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Pi | Ki | K | K (TER) | Desviación | Desv. al 2 | Pi | Varianza |
| | 1 x 2...
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