Speech Test 1

Bayesian statistics

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Bayesian statistics
Bayesian statistics is a subset of the field of statistics in which the evidence about the true state of the world is expressed in terms of degrees ofbelief or, more specifically, Bayesian probabilities. Such an interpretation is only one of a number of interpretations of probability and there are many other statistical techniques that are notbased on "degrees of belief".

Outline
The general set of statistical techniques can be divided into a number of activities, many of which have special "Bayesian" versions.

Statistical inferenceBayesian inference is an approach to statistical inference, that is distinct from the more traditional frequentist inference. It is specifically based on the use of Bayesian probabilities to summariseevidence.

Statistical modelling
The formulation of statistical models for use in Bayesian statistics has the additional feature, not present with other types of statistical techniques, ofrequiring the formulation of a set of prior distributions for any unknown parameters. Such prior distributions are as much part of the statistical model as the part that expresses the probability distributionof observations given the model parameters. The specification of a set of prior distributions for a problem may involve hyperparameters and hyperprior distributions.

Design of experiments
Theusual considerations in the design of experiments are extended in the case of Bayesian design of experiments to include the influence of prior beliefs. Importantly, the application of sequential analysistechniques allow the outcome of earlier experiments to influence the design of the next experiment, based on the updating of beliefs as expressed by the prior and posterior distribution. Part of theproblem of the design of experiments is that they should make good use of resources of all types: one example of the Bayesian design of experiments aimed at such efficiency is the multi-armed bandit...