State and trends of the carbon market 2002

6WDWH DQG 7UHQGV RI WKH &DUERQ 0DUNHW
3UHSDUHG IRU 3&)SOXV 5HVHDUFK E\ )UDQFN /HFRFT DQG .DUDQ &DSRRU
'(&5* DQG (19&) :RUOG %DQN

plus

2Q WKH EDVLV RI PDWHULDO SURYLGHG E\ 1DWVRXUFH //& &2HFRP //& DQG 3RLQW &DUERQ
2FWREHU 
The views expressed in this report are attributable solely to the PCF Plus Research team. They do not represent the views of the World Bank, its ExecutiveDirectors or the Countries they represent. They also not necessarily reflect the views of Natsource LLC, CO2e.com LLC or Point Carbon.

2XWOLQH
 :KDW LV WKH FDUERQ PDUNHW"  2YHUDOO 0DUNHW $FWLYLW\  3URMHFWEDVHG HPLVVLRQ UHGXFWLRQV  $OORZDQFH PDUNHWV  &DUERQ ILQDQFH LQ GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV  2XWORRN $SSHQGL[ 0HWKRGRORJ\
2

 'HILQLWLRQ

:KDW LV WKH FDUERQ PDUNHW"
‡ 7KHUH LVQR VLQJOH FDUERQ PDUNHW GHILQHG E\ D VLQJOH FRPPRGLW\ D VLQJOH FRQWUDFW W\SH RU D VLQJOH VHW RI EX\HUV DQG VHOOHUV ‡ :KDW ZH FDOO ´FDUERQ PDUNHWµ LV D ORRVH FROOHFWLRQ RI GLYHUVH WUDQVDFWLRQV WKURXJK ZKLFK TXDQWLWLHV RI JUHHQKRXVH JDV *+* HPLVVLRQ UHGXFWLRQV DUH H[FKDQJHG ‡ ,QIRUPDWLRQ LV OLPLWHG HVSHFLDOO\ RQ SULFHV VLQFH WKHUH LV QR FHQWUDO FOHDULQJKRXVH IRU FDUERQ WUDQVDFWLRQV $V VXFKLW LV GLIILFXOW WR FRPSDUH SULFHV DQG TXDQWLWLHV RYHU ZKROH PDUNHW
4

0DQ\ ZD\V WR ORRN DW WKLV PDUNHW
 %\ FRPPRGLW\ WUDGHG ² 3URMHFWEDVHG *+* HPLVVLRQ UHGXFWLRQV (5V FUHDWHG DQG H[FKDQJHG WKURXJK D JLYHQ SURMHFW RU DFWLYLW\
([DPSOHV PRVW WUDQVDFWLRQV WR GDWH HJ E\ 3&) 2UHJRQ 7UXVW )XQG HWF

²

*+* (PLVVLRQ $OORZDQFHV DV GHILQHG RU H[SHFWHG WR EH GHILQHG XQGHULQWHUQDWLRQDO QDWLRQDO UHJLRQDO RU ILUPOHYHO UHJXODWLRQV
([DPSOHV 8. WUDGLQJ V\VWHP %3 RU 6KHOO LQWHUQDO WUDGLQJ



%\ YROXPHV ² :KROHVDOH /DUJH WUDQVDFWLRQV XVXDOO\ !  0W&2H
([DPSOHV PRVW SURMHFWV WR GDWH

²  

5HWDLO 'HDOV DUH LQ WKH ·V RI WRQV

([DPSOHV &DUERQQHXWUDO HYHQWV QRQFDUERQ LQWHQVLYH FRUSRUDWLRQV HWF

%\ W\SHV RI FRQWUDFWV HJ VSRW IRUZDUG RSWLRQVVZDSV %\ WLPHIUDPHV PRVW FRQWUDFWV  \HDUV VRPH  \HDUV
5

&DUERQ PDUNHW E\ FRPPRGLWLHV
Project-based Emission Reduction “Pre-Compliance” purchases
From voluntary

2XU UHIHUHQFH IRU WKLV DQDO\VLV

Allowance Trading
National trading systems UK DK

Retail

,Q VXEVHTXHQW DQDO\VLV XQOHVV RWKHUZLVH QRWHG ZH FRXQW YLQWDJHV XQWLO  RQO\

Intra-Firm trading

BP To KyotoPre-Compliance Shell 6

 &DUERQ PDUNHW LV ILUPLQJ XS

'DWD VKRZV FDUERQ PDUNHW LV JURZLQJ
‡ 7KH SDVW \HDU KDV EHHQ WKH PRVW DFWLYH *+* PDUNHW WR GDWH
² YROXPH WUDGHG LQ ILUVW KDOI RI  DOUHDG\ H[FHHGV RYHUDOO  YROXPH  0W&RH WUDQVDFWHG  GHDOV VHH VOLGHV  DQG 

‡ %DVHG RQ FORVHG DQG SHQGLQJ GHDOV WRWDO  YROXPH FRXOG EH LQ WKH UDQJH RI  0W&RH
²&RQVHUYDWLYHO\ WKLV FRXOG UHSUHVHQW D  WR  WLPH LQFUHDVH LQ YROXPH RYHU WKH SUHYLRXV \HDU·V YROXPH RI  0W&RH

‡ 7KLV LV VLJQLILFDQW FRPSDUHG WR  0W&2H WUDQVDFWHG RYHUDOO VLQFH   0W&2H LI SRVW YLQWDJHV DUH FRXQWHG 'HVFULSWLRQ RI WKH GDWD RQ ZKLFK WKLV DQDO\VLV LV EDVHG DUH SURYLGHG LQ $SSHQGL[ ,
8

1XPEHU RI WUDGHV 
100 90 80 National Markets Nb of Transactions 70 ERTransaction 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 (to date)
9

Source: Authors’ own calculation, based on transaction database assembled with Natsource, Co2e.com and PointCarbon

80

9ROXPHV WUDQVDFWHG 
ER Transaction National Markets Projection for 2002 Point Carbon 02 proj.

Estimated volumes transacted (MtCO2e)

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
1996 1997 1998 19992000 2001 2002 (to date) 2002 (Proj.)

$ERYH YROXPHV UHIOHFW RQO\ YLQWDJHV XS WR  :H FKRRVH QRW WR FRXQW FDUERQ SURGXFHG EH\RQG
Source: Authors’ own calculation, based on transaction database assembled with Natsource, Co2e.com and PointCarbon

10

(YLGHQFH LQGLFDWHV PDUNHW PDWXULQJ
‡ 3URMHFWEDVHG WUDQVDFWLRQV VWLOO GRPLQDWH  RI  YROXPH EXW *+* DOORZDQFHV 8. DQG 'HQPDUN...