Suben Fletes Maritimos

SUNDAY SPOTLIGHT

22 JANUARY 2012, ISSUE 44

SEAINTEL MARITIME ANALYSIS

INCREASED SPREAD IN CAF CHARGES
ACROSS CARRIERS

恭禧發財

Carriers stand to gain 100 million USD in added CAF

… or happy Chinese New

through their changed BAF formulas.

Year for those of our readers
not fully up to speed on

In

SeaIntel

Since January 2009 to January

Sunday Spotlight analyzed theMay

last

year,

2012, the spread between the

development in the Currency

lowest and the highest CAF

Adjustment

(CAF),

has steadily grown, and has

which is supposed to keep

more than doubled in the

multitude of “predictions”

carriers

versus

period, with the exception of

flowing on the internet for the

currency

MOL who have charged a

new year,perhaps this is one

valuations. In this analysis we

consistently higher CAF than

of the more interesting:

will

the other carriers in most of the

Factor

risk

neutral

fluctuations

in

review

the

CAF

development since May 2011

period.

entering the year of the
Dragon and amongst the

“While the Year of the Rabbit
was characterized by calm

on themain Asia to Europe
trade lane.

Chinese characters. We are

and tranquility, the Year of

The actual CAF levels
Figure

1

shows

the

the Dragon will be marked by

Last year, the analysis showed

development in CAF for 7 of

excitement, unpredictability,

a significant spread across the

the leading carriers in the Asia-

carriers in their CAF levels. At

Europetrade. These are the

exhilaration and intensity.

that time, the carrier with the

carriers for which we have

lowest

been

Asia-Europe

CAF

able

to

generate

a

People respond to the spirit of
the Dragon with energy,

charged 10.3% whereas the

complete data series of their

vitality and unbridled

highest CAF was 16.7% – a

CAF

enthusiasm, often throwing allspread

entire period from October

caution to the wind. The

2008 to the present day.

Dragon is all about drama

of

6.4

percentage

points. Overall, the spread has

levels

throughout

the

increased since then. Currently
CMA CGM charges the lowest

It is clear, that whereas the

Asia-Europe

overall development for most

CAF

at

8.06%,

while MOLcharges the highest

carriers

CAF at 16.87% closely followed

same pattern, the actual level

by Hanjin at 16.18%, which is a

of

spread of

significantly across the carriers.

8.81

percentage

the

follows
CAF

roughly
still

points.
January 22, 2012

the

varies

but if you take unnecessary
risks, you may find yourself
starring in your own personaltragedy”.

SE AI NTEL M ARI TIME AN ALYSI S

By calculating the differences
between

the

highest

CAF

charged and the lowest CAF
charged, we can measure the
spread

in

CAF

across

the

carriers. This spread is shown in
figure 2.
From the beginning of 2009,
the spread in CAF has been
following a steadily increasing
curve.

This

is

particularly

interesting, asthis shows the
price

difference
is

in

CAF

part of their formulas. However,

development in the USD/EUR

a reasonable hypothesis for

exchange rate. It turns out that

the Asia-Europe trade would

facing

a

across

the best match appears when

be

customer

the exchange is used as a

carriers is increasing.

that

the

formula

is

In relative terms,the price

predominantly dependent on

leading

difference on CAF has more

the exchange rate between

months lead-time.

than doubled – from 3% in the

US Dollar and Euro.

beginning of 2009 to a level

indicator

with

2

In other words, the carriers’

between 6% and 7% in May

We

2009 to a level between 6.5%

average

and 8% since autumn 2011.

the

CAF...