The 10 Trends You Have To Watch
Páginas: 14 (3309 palabras)
Publicado: 29 de septiembre de 2012
STRATEGY in the
SPECIAL ISSUE
NEW WORLD
The
10 Trends You Have to Watch
| by Eric Beinhocker, Ian Davis, and Lenny Mendonca
AFTER A FULL YEAR in heads-down crisis mode,
business executives are looking again to the future. As they reengage in strategic thinking, many are struck by a sense that the world has changed: The turmoil was not merely another turn of the business cycle buta restructuring of the economic order. Is that impression accurate? To answer this question, it is necessary to examine the underlying forces that shape the business environment and to look for discontinuities. McKinsey & Company tracks the most important of these forces, from the growth of emerging markets
Lorenzo Petrantoni
to the evolving role of business in society. Here we discuss howthe crisis may affect their trajectories, and we address the implications for strategy. Some trends, we argue, remain firmly on track, but uncertainties are cropping up around others. We also see signs of new forces emerging, which we will be exploring in more hbr.org detail in the months ahead. Are these the right The overall picture is of an trends to watch? Share your thoughts altered businesslandscape. It with the authors at does seem there will be no golandscape.hbr.org. ing back to the precrisis world.
Eric Beinhocker is a senior fellow at the McKinsey Global Institute, McKinsey & Company’s economics
research arm, where he leads research on economic, management, and public policy issues; he is based in London. Ian Davis, also based in London, is McKinsey’s 10th managing director.Lenny Mendonca is the chair of the McKinsey Global Institute and a director in the firm’s San Francisco office.
hbr.org
|
July–August 2009
|
Harvard Business Review 55
STRATEGY
in the
NEW WORLD.
Resources feeling the strain
Just prior to the financial crisis, rising demand for commodities ranging from energy to foods caused a sharp spike in prices. The downturn changedthat. Crude oil, for example, dropped from roughly $140 to $40 per barrel in six months. Yet fundamental supply-side constraints remain and may worsen if investment in production capacity is delayed by the crisis. Depending on the depth and length of the recession, spare capacity in the oil market could return to the low levels seen in 2007 (when crude oil prices were skyrocketing) somewherebetween 2010 and 2013. Meanwhile, water resources are under increasing strain from population growth, industrialization, and climate change. By 2030, 40% of global GDP and 85% of the world’s population will be in regions where water demand exceeds supply. Against this background, strategists should plan for a future of resource price increases, volatility, and even shortages. Google, for instance, hasprocured land for server farms near hydroelectric power sources in the Pacific Northwest. We believe that, in the years to come, “resource productivity” (the output achieved from every unit of oil, power, water, or other resource input) will become central to company competitiveness.
Globalization under fire
OF ALL THE TRENDS we followed before the crisis, globalization seemed the most secure.Today, however, big and important question marks hang over some aspects of global economic integration.
Global industrial waste of water
Extraction Consumption Difference between water extracted and water consumed
1900
1925
1950
1975
2000
2025
FORECAST
Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal
Although growth in the globalization of goods and services may stall for a period becauseinternational trade has declined along with demand, it is unlikely to reverse. There is little political appetite for further trade liberalization – for example, by completing the Doha round of negotiations – but a full frontal attack on liberal trade would threaten large numbers of jobs, raise prices for consumers, and endanger prospects for economic recovery. While a populist backlash cannot be...
SPECIAL ISSUE
NEW WORLD
The
10 Trends You Have to Watch
| by Eric Beinhocker, Ian Davis, and Lenny Mendonca
AFTER A FULL YEAR in heads-down crisis mode,
business executives are looking again to the future. As they reengage in strategic thinking, many are struck by a sense that the world has changed: The turmoil was not merely another turn of the business cycle buta restructuring of the economic order. Is that impression accurate? To answer this question, it is necessary to examine the underlying forces that shape the business environment and to look for discontinuities. McKinsey & Company tracks the most important of these forces, from the growth of emerging markets
Lorenzo Petrantoni
to the evolving role of business in society. Here we discuss howthe crisis may affect their trajectories, and we address the implications for strategy. Some trends, we argue, remain firmly on track, but uncertainties are cropping up around others. We also see signs of new forces emerging, which we will be exploring in more hbr.org detail in the months ahead. Are these the right The overall picture is of an trends to watch? Share your thoughts altered businesslandscape. It with the authors at does seem there will be no golandscape.hbr.org. ing back to the precrisis world.
Eric Beinhocker is a senior fellow at the McKinsey Global Institute, McKinsey & Company’s economics
research arm, where he leads research on economic, management, and public policy issues; he is based in London. Ian Davis, also based in London, is McKinsey’s 10th managing director.Lenny Mendonca is the chair of the McKinsey Global Institute and a director in the firm’s San Francisco office.
hbr.org
|
July–August 2009
|
Harvard Business Review 55
STRATEGY
in the
NEW WORLD.
Resources feeling the strain
Just prior to the financial crisis, rising demand for commodities ranging from energy to foods caused a sharp spike in prices. The downturn changedthat. Crude oil, for example, dropped from roughly $140 to $40 per barrel in six months. Yet fundamental supply-side constraints remain and may worsen if investment in production capacity is delayed by the crisis. Depending on the depth and length of the recession, spare capacity in the oil market could return to the low levels seen in 2007 (when crude oil prices were skyrocketing) somewherebetween 2010 and 2013. Meanwhile, water resources are under increasing strain from population growth, industrialization, and climate change. By 2030, 40% of global GDP and 85% of the world’s population will be in regions where water demand exceeds supply. Against this background, strategists should plan for a future of resource price increases, volatility, and even shortages. Google, for instance, hasprocured land for server farms near hydroelectric power sources in the Pacific Northwest. We believe that, in the years to come, “resource productivity” (the output achieved from every unit of oil, power, water, or other resource input) will become central to company competitiveness.
Globalization under fire
OF ALL THE TRENDS we followed before the crisis, globalization seemed the most secure.Today, however, big and important question marks hang over some aspects of global economic integration.
Global industrial waste of water
Extraction Consumption Difference between water extracted and water consumed
1900
1925
1950
1975
2000
2025
FORECAST
Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal
Although growth in the globalization of goods and services may stall for a period becauseinternational trade has declined along with demand, it is unlikely to reverse. There is little political appetite for further trade liberalization – for example, by completing the Doha round of negotiations – but a full frontal attack on liberal trade would threaten large numbers of jobs, raise prices for consumers, and endanger prospects for economic recovery. While a populist backlash cannot be...
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