Análisis de forex
Páginas: 4 (913 palabras)
Publicado: 10 de abril de 2011
30/04/2010
1 NOT AN ORACLE JUST A PERSPECTIVE BLOG
EUR/USD a Greek drama: This pair is under pressure until the bailout amount was established. During the weekend the Eurogroup is going todiscuss the terms. We have to bet that Greece is going to be saved by the bell, there is too much in the playing field to risk the recovery.
Several institutions short the pair in the last minutes of thetrading session on Friday, it was a technical decision if you have a look of the four hours chart, you can see that they were trying to keep the pair inside the falling channel. The thin channel isone hour chart that we are going to see later. I believe that the American retail traders will short the pair in Sunday taking advantage that the pair is in the upside edge of the channel and followingthe Friday strong hands. The analysis of the Eurogroup decision will be considered later by the markets during the Asian and the European session. It is really important for a Euro rally to breakthis falling channel.
[pic]
NOT AN ORACLE JUST A PERSPECTIVE BLOG 30/04/2010
I believe that the market is going to asses the Eurogroup bailout, and the pair is going to rally, but thequestion is: what is the limit of that long position?. Our Fibonacci tool can help us with this. There is a strong resistance around 1.3400 with the convergence of the top of the previous rally and the50 % retracement. I think that it is quite close for the average trading range of the pair for two days of gains, and we could later see a rally to the 61, 8 % retracement where we have anotherresistance.
[pic]
This week we have the NFPR and do not believe that the traders would take long positions on Wednesday and Thursday.
If this data is very positive we could see another leg down, weare in a down trend, with the breakout of the 2.010 lows with an objective in the 1.3000
NOT AN ORACLE JUST A PERSPECTIVE BLOG 30/04/2010
[pic]
If the Eurogroup decision is well...
1 NOT AN ORACLE JUST A PERSPECTIVE BLOG
EUR/USD a Greek drama: This pair is under pressure until the bailout amount was established. During the weekend the Eurogroup is going todiscuss the terms. We have to bet that Greece is going to be saved by the bell, there is too much in the playing field to risk the recovery.
Several institutions short the pair in the last minutes of thetrading session on Friday, it was a technical decision if you have a look of the four hours chart, you can see that they were trying to keep the pair inside the falling channel. The thin channel isone hour chart that we are going to see later. I believe that the American retail traders will short the pair in Sunday taking advantage that the pair is in the upside edge of the channel and followingthe Friday strong hands. The analysis of the Eurogroup decision will be considered later by the markets during the Asian and the European session. It is really important for a Euro rally to breakthis falling channel.
[pic]
NOT AN ORACLE JUST A PERSPECTIVE BLOG 30/04/2010
I believe that the market is going to asses the Eurogroup bailout, and the pair is going to rally, but thequestion is: what is the limit of that long position?. Our Fibonacci tool can help us with this. There is a strong resistance around 1.3400 with the convergence of the top of the previous rally and the50 % retracement. I think that it is quite close for the average trading range of the pair for two days of gains, and we could later see a rally to the 61, 8 % retracement where we have anotherresistance.
[pic]
This week we have the NFPR and do not believe that the traders would take long positions on Wednesday and Thursday.
If this data is very positive we could see another leg down, weare in a down trend, with the breakout of the 2.010 lows with an objective in the 1.3000
NOT AN ORACLE JUST A PERSPECTIVE BLOG 30/04/2010
[pic]
If the Eurogroup decision is well...
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