Aplicación De Términos De Economía En Caso Real

9 May 2011 last updated at 09:35 GMT

CBI warns UK economic growth will be "patchy and slow"

UK economic growth will be "patchy and slow" for the rest of 2011 as high inflation and public spending cuts continue to squeeze household budgets, the CBI has warned.

The employers' group has trimmed its growth forecast for the year to 1.7%, down from 1.8%. The CBI predicts export growth willoutpace the rise in imports both this year and next.

But it also expects interest rates to start rising in the third quarter.
The CBI's revised figure for economic growth brings its estimate into line with the government appointed Office for Budget Responsibility, which expects the economy to grow by 1.7% in 2011.

UK Economy |
UK interest rates remain at 0.5% |
Construction seesslower growth |
Households 'face falling income' |
Growth in UK manufacturing slows |
"The recovery continues to be choppy and lacking in vigour. Expansion in certain sectors is being offset by weaker performance in others," said Ian McCafferty, the CBI's chief economic adviser.

"What remains striking is how little we expect the pace of growth to accelerate in 2012, and that it will be farless robust than we'd normally expect in the second and third years of a recovery," he added.

GDP grew by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2011, after a 0.5% slump in the previous quarter, meaning that the economy has in effect been at a standstill in recent months.

Businesses that export their services increase productivity by around 30% in the first year alone and have an 11% better chance oflong term survival.

Inflation 'to persist'
The organization said the rising price of oil and other commodities would drive inflation higher than previously forecast.

It now predicts the consumer prices index (CPI) will average 4.2% in 2011, up from 3.9% in its previous estimate.

The Bank of England's inflation target is 2%.

Last week, the Bank of England decided to keep interestrates at the record low level of 0.5% for the 27th consecutive month.

Some analysts earlier in the year had predicted rates would begin going up from May.
The CBI's predictions for unemployment are slightly more optimistic than before. The number of unemployed is expected to peak at 2.6m in the final quarter of 2011.

Proposals aimed at overhauling UK banking rules and stopping a repeat ofthe financial crisis have been unveiled by the head of the City watchdog.

Demand cooling?
The business organization said the outlook for export growth remained one of the "bright spots" within its forecast.

It said it expected to see UK exporters perform well and anticipated growth in exports would outstrip that of imports, resulting in a net positive impact on GDP.

It is fair to saythere will be a rebalancing of the economy, believes Vicky Redwood, UK economist at Capital Economics.

But she issued a word of caution: "There are signs of a cooling in overseas demand, because the global recovery seems to be losing momentum."

The CBI said it expected modest growth of 0.6% over each of the three remaining quarters of 2011.

Theoretical Framework
1. Economic growth: Anincrease in the capacity of an economy to produce goods and services, compared from one period of time to another. Economic growth can be measured in nominal terms, which include inflation, or in real terms, which are adjusted for inflation.

2. Inflation: The overall general upward price movement of goods and services in an economy (often caused by a increase in the supply of money).3. Export: To send goods or services across national frontiers for the purpose of selling and realizing foreign exchange.

4. Import: goods brought into one country from another.

5. Economic sectors:
* Primary sector: extraction and production of raw materials, such as coal, wood and steel. A coal miner and a fisherman would be workers in the primary sector.
* Secondary...