World Liquids Supply Is Projected To Remain Diversified in All Cases
Figure 34. World liquids production shares by region in three cases, 2007 and 2030 (percent)
100 80 60 40 20 OPEC Persian Gulf 0 2007 Reference Low price High price 2030 North America Other OPEC Africa/Middle East Far East Central/South America Europe and Eurasia
Average Energy Use per Person Declines Through2030
Figure 35. Energy use per capita and per dollar of gross domestic product, 1980-2030 (index, 1980 = 1)
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1980 Energy use per dollar of GDP History Projections Energy use per capita
OPEC production decisions are the most significant factor underlying differences among the price cases. The AEO2009 reference case assumes that OPECwill maintain a share of approximately 40 percent of total world liquids production through 2030, consistent with recent trends. In the high price case, OPEC reduces its market share to about 30 percent; in the low price case, OPEC’s share grows to nearly 50 percent (Figure 34). In all the cases, total liquids production by countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD) is between 22 and 26 million barrels per day in 2030, constrained mainly by resource availability rather than price or political concerns. In the high price case, several non-OPEC countries with large resource holdings (including Russia, Brazil, and Kazakhstan) either maintain or further restrict opportunities for investment in resource development, limiting their contributions to total liquidssupply. Political, fiscal, and resource conditions in each of those countries are unique; however, all will require domestic and foreign investment to develop new projects and maintain infrastructure, and all have either resisted encouraging such investment or indicated that they might enact restrictions on foreign investment. In the low price case, several resource-rich nations, including Russiaand Venezuela, adopt new legislation or fiscal regimes in order to encourage foreign investment in the development of their resources. As a result, the largest increases in liquids production among the non-OPEC countries are in Kazakhstan, Russia, and Brazil.
Growth in energy use is linked to population growth through increases in housing, commercial floorspace, transportation, manufacturing,and services. Since 1980, U.S. energy use per capita has remained relatively stable, between 310 and 360 million Btu per person. In periods of high energy prices (particularly, oil prices) energy consumption per capita has tended to be at the low end of the range, and in periods of low energy prices it has tended to move toward the high end. With the expectation that oil prices will remain highthroughout the projection period, coupled with recent legislation enacted to increase energy efficiency, energy use per capita in the reference case drops below 310 million Btu in 2020 and continues a slow decline through 2030 (Figure 35). Improvements in energy efficiency in response to higher CAFE standards and more stringent standards for lighting contribute to the decline in energy use percapita. Other contributing factors include moderate GDP growth and a decline in industrial energy use per dollar of output, as less energy-intensive industries provide a growing share of industrial production. Energy intensity (energy use per 2000 dollar of GDP) also declines in all the end-use sectors in the reference case, as a result of both structural changes and efficiency improvements. Thesmallest decline from 2007 through 2030 is projected for the commercial sector, where recent energy legislation has only a small impact. In addition, growth in commercial floorspace outpaces housing growth.
Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2009
Buildings and Transportation Sectors Lead Increases in Primary Energy Use
Figure 36. Primary energy use...
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