Macroeconomia 2

Italian politics
The gloves are off
Mario Monti’s two gaffes may have been deliberate
Aug 11th 2012 | ROME | from the print edition

Mr Berlusconi’s tactful newspaper
EVEN in private, Mario Monti, Italy’s prime minister, chooses his words meticulously. Yet this week he made comments that prompted outcries, first in Germany and then in Italy, undermining support for his technocraticgovernment.
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, published on August 7th, Mr Monti was quoted as saying that, were his predecessor, Silvio Berlusconi, still in office, the spread between Italian and German sovereign bond yields, would be around 1,200 basis points. Since the spread is an important measure of investors’ confidence, this was a slap in the face for Mr Berlusconi, whose party, thePeople of Freedom (PdL), may still have the votes in parliament to bring down the government. Despite a conciliatory telephone call from the prime minister, Mr Berlusconi hastened to Rome to confer with his lieutenants. PdL lawmakers sent the government to defeat on a procedural motion in the lower house, though they endorsed a €26 billion ($32 billion) package of spending cuts that is a crucialpart of the government’s programme.
A summer squall? Probably. It blew up just before the recess, and the indignation of Mr Berlusconi’s followers will doubtless cool before they return in September. In any case, some believe Mr Monti was trying to provoke them into bringing down his government so he could run against Mr Berlusconi in an autumn election.
That would be risky for the government,Italy and the euro. Having said he will leave politics when his mandate expires next year, Mr Monti can only credibly stand if he is ousted before. For many inside—and outside—his government, his longer-term political survival is vital to Italy’s future.
That is a view less widely shared in Germany since the publication of an interview with Der Spiegel. In an apparent effort to embolden thechancellor, Angela Merkel, he counselled against governments letting themselves “be fully bound by the decisions of their parliaments”.
For an unelected prime minister, Mr Monti was skating on thin ice. His remark prompted censure from the sentinels of fiscal rectitude. Alexander Dobrindt, secretary of the Christian Social Union (CSU), Mrs Merkel’s allies, called it an “attack on democracy”. GuidoWesterwelle, Germany’s foreign minister, objected too.
An unfortunate effect of the row was to overshadow another warning from Mr Monti: Germany was stoking anti-European and anti-German sentiment by refusing to help bring down Italian interest rates. A recent poll by the Pew Research Centre indicated that Italians are more Eurosceptic than generally believed. Only 59% favoured European unity,against 68% in Germany. The single currency was backed by just 30% in Italy, far below the 46% in Greece. The survey also found fewer Italians (67%) with a positive opinion of Germany than in any other big EU state. But they took a similarly lukewarm view of other countries, including their own.
Mr Monti is worried that Italians’ ambiguous feelings about Germany could be exploited. Mr Berlusconi hassignalled he may again bid for power and his family’s newspaper, Il Giornale, consistently gives the impression that it is testing the ground for an anti-euro, anti-German campaign. Earlier this month, the paper carried an editorial accusing Berlin of trying to dominate Europe “not with cannons, but with the euro”. It was entitled “Fourth Reich” and illustrated with a photograph of Mrs Merkel withher right hand raised. Not much ambiguity there.
from the print edition | Europe

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