Nagorno

Istituto Affari Internazionali
IAI WORKING PAPERS 11 | 29 – November 2011

The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Current Trends and Future Scenarios
Fariz Ismailzade

Abstract As Azerbaijan and Armenia celebrate the 20th anniversary of independence from the Soviet Union, both countries find themselves trapped in a decades-long territorial dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, an internationallyrecognized territory of Azerbaijan, populated mostly by ethnic Armenians. Mediation efforts by the OSCE’s Minsk Group have failed to produce a breakthrough so far. The political leadership of both countries is unwilling and unable to make painful concessions, fearing opposition from domestic public opinion and the Diaspora abroad. As the arms race in the region accelerates, there is little hope for peacein the near future. The upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Armenia and Azerbaijan will leave little room for political maneuvre. Meanwhile, growing frustration among both nations might lead to the outbreak of war and thus put the socio-economic development of the region and energy projects at great risk. Keywords: Armenia / Azerbaijan / Nagorno-Karabakh conflict / Mediationprocess / Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) / OSCE Minsk Group / Russia / Armenian Diaspora / European Union / United States

© 2011 IAI

IAI Working Papers 1129

The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Current Trends and Future Scenarios

The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Current Trends and Future Scenarios
by Fariz Ismailzade∗

Introduction The conflict between Armenia andAzerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, a majority Armenian populated but internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan, is one of the bloodiest and most complicated conflicts in the post-Soviet area. More than 30,000 deaths and over 1 million refugees and internally displaced persons as well as billions of USD in damaged economic and social infrastructure are all painful consequences of thisprotracted conflict. More importantly, the broken human links and lack of communication between the two countries have resulted in growing mutual mistrust and misunderstanding, further distancing the two nations from a peaceful resolution of the conflict. The unresolved conflict and thus the tense relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan hinder regional economic development, the integration of the SouthCaucasus into a common trade zone, the development of infrastructure and, most importantly, they pose an increasing threat to regional security. International observers and local pundits point out the growing number of ceasefire violations and the deepening frustration among the publics of both countries. The chances for the resumption of military activities remain high, leading to speculationsabout the uncertain nature of stability and security in the region. The OSCE’s Minsk Group has led the mediation process between the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents over the past two decades, albeit with no concrete results to show for. To many in the region, the conflict seems deadlocked, with neither side willing to make the necessary compromises towards a breakthrough. What scenarios are onhold for the future negotiation process? Who and what are the main hurdles to peace in the region? This paper attempts to shed light on these questions by analyzing the current state of deadlock in the peace talks, identifying important obstacles and offering three most likely scenarios for the decade ahead. 1. Peace talks: complete deadlock The ceasefire agreement was signed in 1994, after asignificant portion of Azerbaijani territory (some 20%) was already under Armenian military control. Since then, both sides have engaged in intense negotiations, mediated by the OSCE’s Minsk Group, and more specifically by its three Co-chairs: Russia, France and the US. Although the
Paper prepared for the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), November 2011. Revised version of a paper presented at the...