The Economy: Express Or Stopping
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World politics Business & finance Economics Science & technology Culture BlogsDebate The World in 2012Multimedia Print edition
Special report: India
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PrintThe economy
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Express or stopping?
India's growth rate, supercharged for a decade, is falling back to older,
lower levels
Sep 29th 2012 | from the print edition
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INDIA'S TRAINS MOVE slowly. That gives passengers plenty of time to observe their
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fellow riders. They are travelling far to visit a hospital, take up a job, enroll at college.
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Odishan coffee pickers in Karnataka, Assamese students in Kerala and Bihari diamond
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polishers in Gujarat all move as freely around their country as Americans hop from state
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to state. That mobility should give India an advantage over countries like China that
penalise farmers when they leave their land.
Indians are also increasingly well connected. On one 4,200km train ride, through 615
stations, your correspondent never once losthis mobile-phone signal. A decade ago few
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would have cared, since only 9% had a phone of any kind. Now, according to census data
from last year, 63% of householders have a phone, usually a mobile. Ericsson, a maker of
phone handsets, said this month that three-quarters of Indians now have access to a
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The endless rows ofconcrete houses with trailing wires seen
from the windows tell a story too. The same census showed
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that of India's 247m households, two-thirds have electricity
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and nearly half TV. A similar number own bicycles, though
only 5%, so far, have a car.
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» Express or stopping?
2010 some 470m Indians had incomes between $1,000 and
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rise to 570m within a decade, creating a market worth $1
trillion. The big Indian firms that are doing best—such as
China and Japan
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The economy: Express or stopping? | The Economist
small consumer goods—are those targeting such buyers.
02/10/12 09:10
Sources & acknowledgements
Reprints
Yet the rosy forecasts were drawn up when the economy was
roaring ahead and it seemed that another decade or two of
similarly highgrowth would deliver a big mid-income
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economy. Now that prospect is in question. The next few
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years are likely to see much slower expansion.
China
Doubters had long been saying that India's potential rate of
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