Analisis Financiero
Páginas: 35 (8505 palabras)
Publicado: 18 de agosto de 2011
19/05/2011
Value Based Financial Management (1)
• Why is it so important to forecast the financial statements of the firm? This is imperative for management because it provides a vision of the future performance of the company. It is very important to develop strategies to overcome the difficulties that always arise. Firms not listed in the stock exchange: vast majority worldwide. More than99.5%. They do not have the firm value every day from the stock market. Assessment tools: designed for unlisted companies. Estimate future cash flows and value They must maintain a model to measure the value and impact of future decisions on it. The most important is value and not profitability. If you create value, there is profitability. Greater profitability does not mean higher value.Financial Ratio Analysis
Engineering Economy Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar Ignacio Vélez Pareja Professor http://www.cashflow88.com/
http://www.cashf low88.com/decisiones/decisiones.html
ivelez@unitecnologica.edu.co nachovelez@gmail.com Cartagena
5/19/2011
Fi nancial and Ratio Analysis. Vél ez
1
19/05/2011
Fi nancial Forecasting Ignacio Vél ez Pareja 2008
2
Value BasedFinancial Management (3) Value Based Financial Management (2)
• – It is proposed to construct three financial statements: Balance sheet, income statement and cash flow, without plugs and without circularity. That is, build a comprehensive and consistent financial planning model. – It can be used to examine in advance the value creation effects of a decision. This can be done with sensitivityanalysis, scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. – In addition, the financial model is useful for other purposes:
• When planning to raise funds for a new firm or a new project for an ongoing concern. • When planning to sell or merge a business. • When planning to issue bonds.
With a financial model we make looking forward Financial Management. No autopsy is done. An example: usually theyteach financial analysis to see "what happened" and answer some questions. Was the firm liquid last year? Was it profitable? How was financed? How were the funds spent? The question is why is it relevant to know that? What is more interested in the manager: to know what happened or to establish plans and policies into the future? In a financial model, these policies are designed to create value. Thatis, we can examine in terms creation or destruction of value the change in a policy and conclude if it is good or not. For example, the firm might consider whether to increase the portfolio turnover of 30 to 45 days and inventory turns from 20 to 10 days, creates or destroys value and how much.
•
•
•
– The futility of plugs and circularity will be evident later.
19/05/2011
Financial Forecasting Ignacio Vél ez Pareja 2008
3
19/05/2011
Fi nancial Forecasting Ignacio Vél ez Pareja 2008
4
Value Based Financial Management (4)
• As we shall see, the traditional analysis of historical financial statements can be used to identify explicit or implicit policies of the company when you require forecasted financial statements. It also serves to identify and correcterrors to avoid them or to strengthen the successful decisions. Traditional financial ratios can be used to create predictive statistical models of bankruptcy or credit performance. They can be used to make some benchmarking with your competition. Where do you find information for that? In Colombia, visit the website of Superintendencia de Sociedades. In other countries there should be similarentities, governmental or private, where you find that. I.e. Compustat. Financial ratios are not the best procedure to measure the liquidity of the firm, for example. This can be done better with the Cash Budget.
Fi nancial Forecasting Ignacio Vél ez Pareja 2008 5 5/19/2011
The Financial Statement
• Income Statement • Balance Sheet • Cash Flow Statement or Cash Budget They are intertwined
•...
Value Based Financial Management (1)
• Why is it so important to forecast the financial statements of the firm? This is imperative for management because it provides a vision of the future performance of the company. It is very important to develop strategies to overcome the difficulties that always arise. Firms not listed in the stock exchange: vast majority worldwide. More than99.5%. They do not have the firm value every day from the stock market. Assessment tools: designed for unlisted companies. Estimate future cash flows and value They must maintain a model to measure the value and impact of future decisions on it. The most important is value and not profitability. If you create value, there is profitability. Greater profitability does not mean higher value.Financial Ratio Analysis
Engineering Economy Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar Ignacio Vélez Pareja Professor http://www.cashflow88.com/
http://www.cashf low88.com/decisiones/decisiones.html
ivelez@unitecnologica.edu.co nachovelez@gmail.com Cartagena
5/19/2011
Fi nancial and Ratio Analysis. Vél ez
1
19/05/2011
Fi nancial Forecasting Ignacio Vél ez Pareja 2008
2
Value BasedFinancial Management (3) Value Based Financial Management (2)
• – It is proposed to construct three financial statements: Balance sheet, income statement and cash flow, without plugs and without circularity. That is, build a comprehensive and consistent financial planning model. – It can be used to examine in advance the value creation effects of a decision. This can be done with sensitivityanalysis, scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. – In addition, the financial model is useful for other purposes:
• When planning to raise funds for a new firm or a new project for an ongoing concern. • When planning to sell or merge a business. • When planning to issue bonds.
With a financial model we make looking forward Financial Management. No autopsy is done. An example: usually theyteach financial analysis to see "what happened" and answer some questions. Was the firm liquid last year? Was it profitable? How was financed? How were the funds spent? The question is why is it relevant to know that? What is more interested in the manager: to know what happened or to establish plans and policies into the future? In a financial model, these policies are designed to create value. Thatis, we can examine in terms creation or destruction of value the change in a policy and conclude if it is good or not. For example, the firm might consider whether to increase the portfolio turnover of 30 to 45 days and inventory turns from 20 to 10 days, creates or destroys value and how much.
•
•
•
– The futility of plugs and circularity will be evident later.
19/05/2011
Financial Forecasting Ignacio Vél ez Pareja 2008
3
19/05/2011
Fi nancial Forecasting Ignacio Vél ez Pareja 2008
4
Value Based Financial Management (4)
• As we shall see, the traditional analysis of historical financial statements can be used to identify explicit or implicit policies of the company when you require forecasted financial statements. It also serves to identify and correcterrors to avoid them or to strengthen the successful decisions. Traditional financial ratios can be used to create predictive statistical models of bankruptcy or credit performance. They can be used to make some benchmarking with your competition. Where do you find information for that? In Colombia, visit the website of Superintendencia de Sociedades. In other countries there should be similarentities, governmental or private, where you find that. I.e. Compustat. Financial ratios are not the best procedure to measure the liquidity of the firm, for example. This can be done better with the Cash Budget.
Fi nancial Forecasting Ignacio Vél ez Pareja 2008 5 5/19/2011
The Financial Statement
• Income Statement • Balance Sheet • Cash Flow Statement or Cash Budget They are intertwined
•...
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