Bull Eye Investment
In markets like those we face today, we focus on absolute returns. Your benchmark is a money market fund. Success is measured in terms of how much you make above Treasury Bills. Most analysts track a simple bear market from peak to through ( top to bottom). Bear markets (or 20% plus corrections) can happen in secular bull periods (think 1987 or 1998), just as bull markets (20% plus up reversals) can happen in secular bear markets (think 200, 2001, 2002, 2003). Analysts also view a secular bear market as the lengthy period over wich the market makes a top, enters into a decisive down phase, and then once again returns to the old high. I´ve suggest that we view a secular bear market a little differently, as the period in which price‐earnings (p/e) ratio goes from very high to quite low. Investing in secular bear markets is all about controlling risk. There are great opportunities in the stock market if you know where to look. The world sees us in a much different light than just a few years ago. CHAPTER 1 CAR WRECK, TRAFICC JAM, OR FREEWAY? This time the apparently high valuations in the stock market are really different from the past high valuations, wich always ended in serious corrections and decade‐long secular bear markets. Furthermore, they contend all recessions in the future will be mild and short, such as the one we experienced in 2001.
The recent era of profitable buy‐and‐hold stock market investing, using index funds and chasing high‐growth large‐cap stocks, has ended, and will not come our way again for many years. Until then, we need to change our investment habits to adjust with the times. A secular bear market is loosely defined as a long period of years or even decades when stock prices are either flat or falling. Secular bear markets are as short as eight years or as long as 17. Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which has seemed to work quite well for decades. It is belief in this ...
Regístrate para leer el documento completo.