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Arvid Subramanian predicts that by 2030 China will be the world superpower. Through China’s GDP, China’s economy over the span of 18 years from now will be, surpassing that of the United States. Subramanian’s hypothesis of this futurist anomaly is based solely on China’s economy on an international and domestic level. “I project that China’s growth will slow down considerably: it will averageseven percent a year over the next 20 years, compared with the approximately 11 percent it has registered over the last decade”(Subramanian). To grow at 11 percent yearly is an amazing. Granted, over the next 20 years their growth rate will drop. When, compared to other countries this drop does not hurt China raise to superpower status. “ The U.S economy will grow at about 2.5 percent per year, asit has over the last 30 years… long-term growth forecast of 2.2 percent” (Subramanian). The United States has the second highest growth rate. Even if the China’s GDP drops it will still have about 5 percent higher growth rate then its top competitor. On papers and graphs it seems that China will rise to be the superpower nation of the world in due time. However, Subramanian over looks certainaspects of China internationally and domestically that could see their new found status not coming to fruition, or once realized not having the capabilities to withstand their new found status because of their population, economic dependence, and international influence.
One form of capital Subramanian talks about that can be a legitimate reason for the rise of China is their human capital.“According to the National Science Foundation, in 2006 there were nearly twice as many undergraduates in science and engineering in China as in the United States” (Subramanian). With this China is able to grow more rapidity in the most predominant industry in the 21st century technology. “The ability of rich countries to stay ahead in terms of growth is inherently limited because China is better able toabsorb and use new technology”(Subramanian). Technology and human capital are two things in the modern age that can lead to becoming the superpower. However, China’s Human Capital is also one of its biggest weaknesses. China’s population is approximately 1.3 billion to date, and 4.1unemployment, in addition, the working age group mostly from 14-60. With no real protection of its citizens likeyou would find in the United States with Medicare, Medicaid, or strong social structure. Chinese citizens are left to take care of themselves. Subramanian brought up the point about students and the degrees they graduate with. He is correct Chinese adults are more prepared for the world of technology. However, when that generation retires, there are no systems in place to take care of them. Chinacannot produce enough workers that are greater then the adults that would retire. The graph below displays this conundrum. In 2035 there will be 393 million people retiring, and only 208 million joining the working force. These number represent the idea by 2035 the population will be unable to produce enough to take care of its own citizens. Without a strong government influence by 2035, China’sdomestic GDP will drop due being over populated. Subramanian states that in the year 2030 China, will be a super power, however, five years later they will be face with an issue that will dramatically affect their domestic GDP. The domino affect of this will hurt their status of being considered the superpower in the world. In addition, Subramanian presents the idea the nation with the highestGDP, shall be the superpower. Based on his logic if China’s is dramatically affected by the over population, then the United States should be able to pass China and once again become the superpower nation. This can only happen because of China’s overpopulation affecting their GDP.

On an international scale Subramanian presents China’s rise to power will come due it growth in exports to other...