Coface - Estados Unidos

United States
Population

GDP

314.311million

15653.366US$billion

@rating
country

Business climate
assessment

MAJOR MACRO ECONOMIC INDICATORS
2010

2011

2012(e)

2013(f)

GDP growth (%)

2.4

1.8

2.3

1.5

Inflation (yearly average) (%)

1.6

3.2

2.2

2.3

Budget balance (% GDP)

-9

-8.7

-7

-5.3

Current account balance (% GDP)

-3-3.1

-3.1

-2.7

94.3

98.9

104.4

110

Public debt (% GDP)
(e) Estimate (f) Forecast

STRENGTHS

WEAKNESSES

Flexible job market

High proportion of structural unemployment

Full employment is also one of the Federal Reserve’s objectives

Households have little geographic flexibility

Predominant role of the dollar in the global economy

High household debt(113% of disposable income)

Nearly 60% of public debt held by residents

Polarisation of political life

Growing energy self-sufficiency (shale gas)

Decline in fecundity rate
Dilapidated state of much infrastructure

RISK ASSESSMENT
Slowdown in 2013
Domestic demand, which drove growth in 2012, is expected to stall in 2013. Uncertainties around the discussions between the ObamaAdministration
and the Republicans to try and find a compromise on the fiscal adjustments undermined household and business confidence from the end of summer
last year. Household consumption was steady all the same but businesses put the brakes on investment spending. The forecast of 1.5% growth in
2013 is built on a fiscal deficit reduction scenario and on raising the public debt ceiling.
Weakhousehold consumption and signs of movement in residential construction

With the likely drop in household disposable income, private consumption is set to contract, especially as savings, which had built up again in 2010
(5.7% of disposable income), have eroded last year and are due to only increase slightly in 2013. Several factors will have a mixed effect on
household spending. First, theunemployment rate: this is expected to stabilise at 7.6% but not enough jobs will be created and the number of
precarious jobs will remain unchanged (around 14%) as will the number of long-term unemployed (40% for over 27 weeks). Second, household
finances: households have deleveraged substantially (134% of disposable income in 2007 down to 113% in 2012) but this adjustment is primarily the
resultof personal bankruptcies and limited access to bank credit. There is then little scope for household spending to grow at a robust pace. Finally,
whatever the size of the fiscal adjustment, tax hikes and government spending cuts will inevitably affect both confidence and consumption. In
contrast, household net wealth is expected to rise thanks to the appreciation of their financial assets (15%increase over one year to end December
2012) and real estate. Since the summer, house prices have edged up slightly (+6.9% from January to october 2012), a trend which is likely to
continue in 2013, though to a lesser extent. The Fed’s unconventional policy (quantitative easing 3 in September and December 2012) therefore
seems to be bearing fruit by supporting the fall in mortgage and borrowingrates and construction activity. However, employment in this sector
remains anaemic, which keeps structural unemployment at high levels.
Deceleration in productive investment and exports
Business confidence eroded in late 2012 and is likely to remain weak into 2013, which will hamper investment growth for the second consecutive
year. Despite competitiveness gains (lower energy costs and stillfavourable exchange rate for the dollar), exports are likely to grow only modestly, as
in 2012, in line with subdued external demand. The recession in the eurozone hampers export-oriented companies (15% of total exports), but also
affects them indirectly through American companies located in Asia. Adverse effects will also come from Japan (5% of sales abroad). However,
despite the persistent...