Development

The crop intensification program in Rwanda: a sustainability analysis by Nicola Cantore
Policy analyzed: The Crop Intensification Program implemented in Rwanda with the overarching goal of promoting food security and strengthening the countries agricultural productivity
Main research questions regarding CIP:
* Is the CIP economically profitable and sustainable in a short term and in a longterm perspective?
* What is the environmental impact of the CIP and what could be the consequences for the national budget?
Methodology of the analysis:
Cantore’s analysis included qualitative interviews and quantitative analysis( model on lineal regression). In addition, the author make use of previous relevant literature in the subject of intensive agriculture in the continent.
Resultsof the lineal regression
Out of all the variables included in the model, only two showed a significant change: labor (positive relationship) and arable land (negative relationship).
The assumption draw from the regression was that despite of the higher inputs expenditures there is little output benefits in other than labor and arable land.
Policy Recommendations
* A revision of the CIPwhich shall include soil management measures with the purpose of reconciling the short term needs of food security and long term need of soil productivity (23)
* Evaluation of the costs of terracing as opposed to other agro-forestry practices which are argued as more cost effective. Adopting a more cost effective practice would also reduce the current funding gap.
* Focus on the quality offertilizers rather than quantity at the time of importation contracts and subsidies.
* Research on the benefit-cost of the externalities caused by CIP which are not accounted for in the original program.
* ‘’implement opportune studies to investigate if investments for sustainable management practices are profitable if compared to value of carbon in those voluntary markets’’ (25)
*Expanding into organic farming as a profitable niche market for Rwanda farmers.
* Expansion of public investments into improving the business conditions for farmers` private investments in soil conservation practices (25)

Assessment of Carole’s CIP analysis
Strengths:
* The value of this analysis is the challenge of the simplistic assumption of the CIP effects. The author confronts theassumptions that increasing productive inputs and higher level of land use there should boost of production and food security.
* The analysis lays out the criteria for analyzing the CIP in Rwanda (adequate terminology, the CIP scheme etc)
* The comprehensive scope of the analysis by including short term, long term and social sustainability
* Combination of qualitative and quantitativeanalysis to obtain a broader picture of the policy implementation on Rwanda. The qualitative interviews shed light of factors that alternatively couldn’t have been captured in the model (i.e policy makers biases towards market externalities)
* The inclusion of externalities in the analysis, which were not considered or formulated in the original CIP.
* Provision of recommendations directlytied to the issues raised of the analysis.
* Addresses the uncertainty of some externalities which are difficult to quantify in limited periods of time (carbon emissions, health hazards)
Weaknesses:
* Fragile use of social sustainability indicators as measurements of CIP impact in Rwanda (i.e positive externalities such as education and health)
* Unaccounted variation of effects ofthe CIP across districts.
* Ignores the volatility of agriculture which is dependent on weather and water supply.
* Common rhetoric regarding the gap of funds however, the effectiveness of CIP is not measured on taking into account these constrains.
* The CIP, according to its targets, has been efficient. Therefore, judging on other criteria (environment sustainability) not established...