El Agro y La Crisis Financiera

(Langtitel): Peru. Agriculture, rural development and the international financial crisis (Kurztitel): Only affected indirectly Augusto Cavassa Innovación para el Desarrollo Lima, Peru acavassa@terra.com.pe A large proportion of Peru's population is concentrated in the mountain areas. Economic growth in the last few years has not had any substantial effect on reducing poverty in the ruralhighlands, where almost 70 percent of the population lives below the poverty line; it is hoped that the economic downturn as a result of the current global crisis will have an equally negligible effect. Latin American countries are finding they are less affected by the crisis than other parts of the world (Trivelli, C., Yancari, Y. and De los Ríos, Carlos, 2009), mainly because it has come at a timewhen they possess international reserves and tax revenues with which to combat it. The greatest impacts will be felt by those labour markets linked to exporting sectors and wherever the rural world is intricately involved in dynamic product markets and uses outside production factors and employment. The Peruvian economy felt the negative effects of the worldwide financial crisis in 2009. GDP hasfallen drastically: the year-on-year rate GDP growth fell from an average 11 percent in the first three quarters of 2008 to 6.5 percent in the last quarter, and to 1.8 percent in the first quarter of the current year (Banco Continental, 2009). This blow to the economy comes after an exceptional period that drove up the 2008 GDP to US$ 127.7 billion, after having grown at an annual rate of 7.7percent in 2006, 8.9 percent in 2007 and 9.8 percent in 2008. Per capita earnings increased from US$ 2,592 in 2005 to US$ 4,457 in 2008. Inflation was kept at approximately 2 percent in the years up to 2007, but rose to 6.6 percent in 2008 and fell sharply in 2009, when the accumulated rate of inflation over the first five months of the year was 0.4 percent This economic growth was reflected in areduction in poverty from 48.7 percent in 2005 to 39.3 percent in 2007, although the impact was slight among the rural highland population, which still has rates close to the 70 percent mark. The continuing poverty means that rural development in highland regions will be on the agenda for the coming years, especially in view of the competition for natural resources between agriculture and mining.Possible impacts of the crisis The importance of mining in Peru has lead to a number of outcomes, which include:    The accumulation of funds from mining rents and royalties in the hands of local and regional governments, which is a key factor in promoting local and regional development. Changes in legislation that will have implications on small-scale crop and livestock farming, biodiversitymanagement, eco-farming and food security. In terms of the effects of climate change on a global level, Peru is one of the hardest hit countries, particularly as regards the availability of water, and this could lead to an increase in disputes over natural resources.

Due to the fall in the price of minerals, the crisis has greatly affected exports of traditional products, causing regional andlocal government earnings to drop. Another visible consequence will be higher prices of agricultural inputs, which will affect all farmers and particularly producers of crops for domestic consumption, where production costs (bought-in inputs) account for 64 percent of total agricultural costs. According to Yancari, Y. (2009), the effects of the crisis in Peru are being felt in four ways: 1. Lowerexternal demand, which will be reflected in a reduction in nontraditional exports; 2. Lower export prices, affecting exports of traditional products (minerals) and tax revenues; 3. Higher interest rates due to the lack of liquidity worldwide; 4. Reduced flow of external capital (Yancari, Y., 2009). The fall in demand for non-traditional agro-exports will mean lower earnings and fewer jobs for...