Escenario petrolero

Escenario Petrolero
Perspectiva del mercado petrolero mundial en el corto y mediano plazo y su posible impacto sobre la economía venezolana Noviembre 24, 2009

“ANALISIS 2009 - DESAFIO 2010” - CÁMARA Nelly Parra-Matheus ▪ Julio 2008 DIRECCIÓN MARKETING Y DISTRIBUCIÓN ▪ VENEZOLANO BRITANICA DE COMERCIO-

Nov. 24, 2009

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Take-Away Points
•Medium-term (2012-2020) worldoil production decline is UNAVOIDABLE •Growth in demand will not come from OECD countries, but China & India •Since 2004 growing oil-fuel demand has been met through NGL & NCO •Further Mitigation requires 10 to 15 years of development. Mitigation is: • MASSIVE • TIME-CONSUMING • EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE • COMPARATIVELY SLOW •If Mitigation fails World GDP is expected to collapse together with fuelproduction •Short-term (2010-2011) world recession reduced demand & increased inventories •Pre-recession projects ready for 2010, represent 7.5 mbpd of spare capacity • While Venezuelan oil income, production and exports keep dropping, imports stay the same, causing a serious drop in International Reserves •While the US keeps reducing the overall percentage of Venezuelan fuels of its import mix,Venezuela reaches maximum dependence on exports to the US
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“ANALISIS 2009 - DESAFIO 2010” - CÁMARA Nelly Parra-Matheus ▪ Julio 2008 DIRECCIÓN MARKETING Y DISTRIBUCIÓN ▪ VENEZOLANO BRITANICA DE COMERCIONov. 24, 2009 www.sequoian.com

Of 70,000 oil fields in production worldwide, 60% comes from 798 fields (large, giants & super-giants)*

*A giant is defined
as a field with initial reserves of 500million to 5 billion barrels, a super-giant > 5 billion, large >100< 500 million

25% (19 mbpd) of world oil production comes from the fields listed here. the first ten, account for 20% (14 mbpd) and one field alone produces 7% (5.1 mbpd)
“ANALISIS 2009 - DESAFIO 2010” - CÁMARA Nelly Parra-Matheus ▪ Julio 2008 DIRECCIÓN MARKETING Y DISTRIBUCIÓN ▪ VENEZOLANO BRITANICA DE COMERCIONov. 24, 20093

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OECD decline rates triple those of the middle east

580 of the world's largest fields (798 from 70,000) average decline rates of 5% (3.5% for super-giants, 6.5% for giants, 10.4% for large)
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“ANALISIS 2009 - DESAFIO 2010” - CÁMARA Nelly Parra-Matheus ▪ Julio 2008 DIRECCIÓN MARKETING Y DISTRIBUCIÓN ▪ VENEZOLANO BRITANICA DE COMERCIONov. 24, 2009 www.sequoian.comGiant oil fields provide about 60% of world oil production but discoveries peaked decades ago

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“ANALISIS 2009 - DESAFIO 2010” - CÁMARA Nelly Parra-Matheus ▪ Julio 2008 DIRECCIÓN MARKETING Y DISTRIBUCIÓN ▪ VENEZOLANO BRITANICA DE COMERCIONov. 24, 2009 www.sequoian.com

Oil peaking & decline are unavoidable
Production Two profiles

Time - Decades Oil fields peak / plateau & then decline.Countries peak / plateau & decline (Many oil fields)

Production

U.S Lower 48 States

1945

Year

2000 The world will peak / plateau & decline (All countries)

The combined reserves of all giant & super-giant fields amount to 1.306 billion barrels, of which 697 billion barrels remain (80% of conventional oil reserves)
“ANALISIS 2009 - DESAFIO 2010” - CÁMARA Nelly Parra-Matheus ▪Julio 2008 DIRECCIÓN MARKETING Y DISTRIBUCIÓN ▪ VENEZOLANO BRITANICA DE COMERCIONov. 24, 2009

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China & India’s demand has been surpassing OECD countries demand since about 2004

Non-OECD countries account for 93% of the increase in global demand between 2007 & 2030, driven largely by China & India
“ANALISIS 2009 - DESAFIO 2010” - CÁMARA Nelly Parra-Matheus ▪ Julio 2008DIRECCIÓN MARKETING Y DISTRIBUCIÓN ▪ VENEZOLANO BRITANICA DE COMERCIONov. 24, 2009

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NGL’s and Non Conventional kept demand fulfilled since 2004

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“ANALISIS 2009 - DESAFIO 2010” - CÁMARA Nelly Parra-Matheus ▪ Julio 2008 DIRECCIÓN MARKETING Y DISTRIBUCIÓN ▪ VENEZOLANO BRITANICA DE COMERCIONov. 24, 2009 www.sequoian.com

World oil fuels production stopped growing...